Emmanuel Macron and Sir Keir Starmer departed Downing Street today bound for the Permanent Joint Headquarters military operations centre in Northwood, north-west London, as negotiations intensified over a contentious Channel migrant returns agreement.
The French president and British prime minister are scheduled to announce the outcome of their talks at a 3.30pm press conference, with speculation mounting that a breakthrough “one in, one out” deal could be unveiled despite significant opposition from other European Union member states.
Their departure came as Downing Street branded the escalating number of Channel crossings “unacceptable”, with government officials confirming that more work was urgently needed to address what they described as an “international problem”.
Record Numbers Prompt Action
The bilateral summit comes against a backdrop of unprecedented migration figures, with more than 21,000 people having crossed the English Channel in small boats during the first six months of 2025 – a 50% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
“We’ve been consistently clear that the numbers are unacceptable,” a Downing Street spokesperson said. “Clearly, more work needs to be done. We will approach that, whether that is investing in border security command, whether that is working with our international allies.”
The spokesperson emphasised that tackling criminal smuggling gangs “cannot be done singularly” and requires coordinated international efforts.
As the leaders departed for Northwood, dozens of migrants were seen attempting the perilous Channel crossing. Some 74 men, one woman and three children were observed being transferred to British authorities by the French Navy in Channel waters this morning, highlighting the ongoing nature of the crisis.
In a moment that underscored the operational challenges, French authorities subsequently demanded the return of 40 life jackets they had loaned to the migrants during the rescue operation.
Controversial Returns Scheme
The proposed “one in, one out” arrangement would see Britain return illegal small boat arrivals to France in exchange for accepting asylum seekers from France who have family connections in the UK. French newspaper Le Monde reported the scheme could initially involve approximately 50 migrants per week – roughly 2,600 annually.
However, this would represent just 6% of current crossing numbers, leading critics to question whether the deterrent effect would be sufficient. Government sources indicated the pilot scheme could be scaled up if it demonstrates “proof of concept”.
The deal has encountered fierce resistance from Mediterranean EU nations. Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus – collectively known as the Med5 group – wrote to the European Commission expressing “serious concerns” about the proposals.
“We take note – with a degree of surprise – of the reported intention of France to sign a bilateral readmission arrangement,” the southern European nations stated. “If confirmed, such an initiative raises serious concerns for us, both procedurally and in terms of potential implications for other member states, particularly those of first entry.”
These countries fear France could use existing EU rules to pass migrants received from Britain on to their territories, potentially redirecting migration flows southward.
New Enforcement Tactics
Beyond the returns agreement, French authorities have begun implementing more aggressive enforcement measures. For the first time, French police have been filmed using knives to puncture inflatable dinghies in shallow waters before they can depart for British shores.
The unprecedented tactic represents a significant shift in French maritime law enforcement, with officers now able to intervene up to 300 metres offshore rather than being restricted to beach operations. Video footage broadcast by the BBC showed officers approaching a packed vessel and puncturing it before it could launch, forcing migrants to drag the deflated boat back to shore.
A source familiar with the negotiations described the new powers as a “precursor” to broader changes in French maritime law, expected to be formalised later this month.
Political Pressure Mounts
The migrant crisis has become a significant political liability for Starmer’s Labour government, which came to power partly on promises to “smash the gangs” operating the dangerous crossings. The prime minister faces mounting pressure from opposition parties, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage demanding during Prime Minister’s Questions that Starmer tell Macron “we will not accept undocumented males across the English Channel.
Starmer has invested considerable political capital in securing French cooperation, with the UK having pledged more than £700 million to France since 2018 for enhanced patrols and surveillance equipment. The majority of this funding – nearly £500 million over three years – came from a 2023 deal struck under the previous Conservative government.
Speaking in Parliament earlier this week, Macron acknowledged the burden the crisis places on both nations. We cannot allow our countries‘ rules for taking in people to be flouted and criminal networks to cynically exploit the hopes of so many individuals with so little respect for human life,” he said.
The French president promised “tangible results” from the summit, adding that both countries shared “the same resolve to fight against illegal criminal gangs, with strong coordination with other EU states”.
Strategic Context
Today’s visit to Northwood’s Permanent Joint Headquarters carries additional significance beyond migration discussions. The facility serves as the nerve centre for British military operations worldwide and houses NATO’s Allied Maritime Command.
Sources indicate the leaders will also dial into a meeting of the “coalition of the willing” – a British and French-backed initiative preparing for potential peacekeeping operations in Ukraine. The group has been developing plans for a European-led force that could help guarantee any future ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
This broader strategic cooperation underscores the complex diplomatic balancing act both leaders face. While seeking to demonstrate control over their borders to domestic audiences, they must also maintain unity on wider security challenges facing Europe.
Economic Sweeteners
The summit has already yielded economic benefits, with French energy giant Engie announcing a €1.2 billion investment in UK energy storage projects. This follows a £1.1 billion commitment from France’s EDF for a nuclear power project in eastern England, suggesting economic cooperation remains strong despite migration tensions.
Downing Street confirmed that Starmer raised concerns about the UK’s “massive surge in illegal working arrests” during Wednesday’s discussions, arguing this was necessary to “end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.
French officials, meanwhile, have reportedly pressed Britain to do more to reduce the “pull factors” attracting migrants, including addressing the black market for labour and tightening welfare access.
The Stakes
For both leaders, today’s announcement carries significant political risks. Macron faces criticism at home from right-wing opponents who may question why France would accept migrants seeking to reach Britain. Starmer, whose approval ratings have plummeted since taking office, desperately needs a visible success on an issue that helped doom his Conservative predecessors.
Keir being Keir did not stop the French being French,” one Downing Street aide observed, highlighting how national interests have trumped any honeymoon period between the Labour government and European partners.
The fact that negotiations have gone down to the wire suggests the complexity of balancing domestic political pressures with the practical realities of cross-Channel cooperation. Whether today’s summit produces a breakthrough or merely another incremental step in the long-running crisis remains to be seen.
As one government source put it: “The situation cannot go on as it is. We’re bringing new tactics into play and a new level of intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of criminal gangs.
The 3.30pm press conference will reveal whether that intent has translated into the concrete action both nations’ voters increasingly demand.
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Images of war 23–25 from Gaza – Photo by Jaber Badwen, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
