Mayor’s funding increases 1,000 per cent as stabbings reach 55 since 2017 whilst police warn of Hillsborough-style disaster
The disturbing tally of 55 stabbing incidents since 2017 has failed to prompt meaningful reform, even as taxpayers foot an ever-increasing bill for Europe’s largest street festival.
New analysis reveals Londoners will shell out between £80 million and £100 million over the next five years to subsidise an event that saw two deaths, 350 violent or sexual offences, and 61 assaults on police officers in 2024 alone. Most alarmingly, Metropolitan Police commanders have warned of an imminent risk of a Hillsborough-style crushing disaster.
City Hall’s contribution to stewarding has doubled from last year to nearly £2 million, representing a staggering 1,000 per cent increase since Khan took office in 2016. This comes as the Mayor slashes the Met’s budget and oversees cuts to frontline policing services across the capital.
At a time when Londoners are facing cuts to essential and frontline policing services because of Sadiq Khan and this Labour Government, the Met simply cannot afford to spend over £80 million policing Carnival over the next five years,” warns Susan Hall, leader of the City Hall Conservatives, whose new report exposes the crisis.
Violence outstrips Southport riots
The violence at Carnival has reached levels that would see any other major London event immediately cancelled. Last year’s festivities saw 75 police officers injured, significantly exceeding the 53 officers hurt during the Southport riots that dominated national headlines weeks later. The number of officers assaulted has increased every year since 2018.
Among this year’s casualties was a 32-year-old mother who was stabbed whilst with her young child, caught in crossfire between warring groups. She remains in critical condition. The two-day event recorded eight stabbings, with three victims fighting for life, alongside 13 sexual offences and 355 arrests.
“These arrests are a significant step in the investigation,” said Commander Charmain Brenyah. “She came to Carnival to have fun, with her young child, and was caught up in the most awful violence.”
Taxpayers subsidise danger
The financial burden on Londoners continues to spiral. Deploying 7,000 police officers, one-fifth of the Met’s total establishment, cost £11.8 million last year alone. Overtime payments accounted for £5.5 million, more than half the policing budget.
The Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea spends an additional £1 million on street cleaning, whilst City Hall has dramatically increased its contribution. In July, emergency funding of £958,000 was secured from City Hall and local councils just weeks before the event to prevent its cancellation.
Carnival attracts over a million people every year and the organisers have asked for more funding to keep participants safe,” said Councillor Kim Taylor-Smith, deputy leader of Kensington and Chelsea Council. “We have to be really clear that this is additional funding for this year only.”
‘Ticking time bomb’ warnings ignored
Police commanders have issued increasingly urgent warnings about crowd safety. Deputy Assistant Commissioner Matt Ward, the Met’s Gold Commander for Carnival, acknowledged “unique challenges” and ongoing concerns about crowd management despite new safety measures.
With two million people now cramming into the narrow streets of Notting Hill each August bank holiday weekend, we have created the conditions under which there is a serious risk to life,” Hall’s report states. “It is not a question of if a tragedy will occur, but when.”
The Victorian streets that once accommodated thousands now struggle with millions. Emergency services report increasing difficulty accessing incidents through dense crowds, whilst escape routes become choked with revellers. One senior officer privately told investigators: “We come exceptionally close to a major catastrophic failure of public safety where members of the public will suffer serious injury.
Officers feel like ‘lambs to slaughter’
A Metropolitan Police Federation survey revealed shocking testimony from frontline officers. One described being “punched, kicked, hit with objects including bottles” whilst policing the event. The Federation’s 24-page dossier documents officers feeling “powerless” to prevent crimes due to overwhelming crowd numbers.
“Officers work approximately 30 to 40 hours over the two days, which can have a significant impact on their wellbeing,” the Federation noted. We are extremely concerned about the public who attend the event being victims of crime that officers feel powerless to prevent.
Since 2016, more than 500 police officers have been assaulted at Carnival. Officers report being stabbed, spat at, sexually assaulted, bitten and threatened. The violence has escalated despite increased police presence and resources.
Khan’s reputation on the line
The Mayor, who claims to have “no legal responsibility” for the event, has nonetheless staked significant political capital on its continuation. His nine-fold funding increase since 2016 is “the only way it has been able to continue,” according to Hall’s analysis.
In June, Khan admitted the crush risk “made me frightened,” yet his administration’s response has been to throw more money at the problem rather than implement fundamental reforms. Critics argue no other event with comparable violence statistics would be permitted to continue, let alone receive increased taxpayer funding.
“I’ve seen some of the footage. It’s a prospect of a Hillsborough-type event, with the crushing. People are literally like sardines,” Hall warned. She has urged the Mayor to take direct control, potentially relocating the event to Hyde Park and introducing ticketing to generate revenue.
Reform proposals face resistance
Conservative proposals include shifting Carnival away from the Bank Holiday weekend to reduce overtime costs, rotating the event between boroughs to share the burden, and introducing commercial sponsorship. These suggestions have met fierce resistance from organisers and supporters who argue they would destroy the event’s community character.
Private firm Notting Hill Carnival Ltd and the Carnival Village Trust charity, which run the event, warned in June it risked “compromising public safety” without urgent funding. Chairman Ian Comfort said the additional support secured “just weeks before the event” was “much-needed and welcome.”
However, critics point out that organisers have resisted meaningful safety reforms whilst demanding ever-increasing public subsidies. The contrast with other major events is stark, with festivals like Glastonbury operating profitably whilst maintaining superior safety records.
Political calculation or public safety?
As preparations begin for the 2025 Carnival, the fundamental question remains: how many more stabbings, assaults and near-disasters will it take before action is taken? With crime at the event increasing 200 per cent since 2000 and arrests up 160 per cent, the trajectory is unsustainable.
“Nobody wants to cancel the Notting Hill Carnival entirely. But the event has clearly reached breaking point,” the analysis concludes. If violence levels match or exceed last year’s statistics, Khan will face difficult questions about prioritising political considerations over public safety.
The Mayor has not merely invested taxpayer money in the Carnival’s success. He has gambled his reputation on an event that increasingly resembles a public safety catastrophe waiting to happen. As one veteran officer observed: “No other event would be allowed to continue like this.”
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