Greater Manchester Mayor refuses to rule out leadership challenge as theoretical polling shows potential revival of party fortunes
Labour could overtake Reform if Andy Burnham was to take over as party leader, new polling has shown.
A theoretical poll by More in Common suggests that Labour would scoop 30 per cent of the vote, compared to 28 per cent for Reform if the Greater Manchester Mayor was to become Prime Minister.
The Tories meanwhile could take home 18 per cent of the vote, while Lib Dems get 12 per cent and six per cent for the Green Party.
The poll has taken into account current voting intention, compared to hypothetical polling with Mr Burnham as Labour leader.
The findings come as Labour faces its worst polling crisis since records began, with some surveys putting the party as low as 16 per cent nationally, trailing Reform UK by as much as 18 points.
Despite repeated hints that he could be considering a future as party leader, Mr Burnham has insisted he is “completely committed” to his role as mayor.
But the senior politician again declined to rule out a tilt for the Prime Minister’s job if he won enough backing as he faced questions about his recent interventions in national politics today.
Speaking to BBC Radio Manchester, Mr Burnham said: “I’ve no intention of just abandoning what we’re trying to build here, but I gave an honest answer and sometimes it feels to me that the Westminster world can’t deal with those answers.
The Greater Manchester Mayor appears to be positioning himself as an alternative to Sir Keir Starmer, whose approval ratings have plummeted to -44, according to YouGov polling. In stark contrast, Burnham enjoys a rare positive rating of +7, making him the only senior Labour politician with net positive approval.
Among Labour Party members, Burnham’s popularity is overwhelming. A LabourList poll found 57 per cent of members would place him in their top three to succeed Starmer, with 29 per cent making him their first choice. His favourability rating among members stands at an extraordinary +78.
Public polling by Ipsos shows that 35 per cent of Britons think Burnham would do a good job as Labour leader, compared to just 26 per cent for Starmer, 23 per cent for former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, and 19 per cent for Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
Mr Burnham has been increasingly vocal in his criticism of the current Labour leadership. Earlier this month, he launched a new faction within the party called “Mainstream”, designed to be a home for what he calls “radical realists” within Labour.
Speaking to the New Statesman this week, Burnham warned that Britain needs “wholesale change” and challenged the government to answer the question “where is our plan to turn the country around?” at the upcoming Labour conference.
The timing of Burnham’s interventions is significant. Sir Keir faces mounting pressure following the resignation of communications director Steph Driver, the third senior aide to quit in recent weeks. The Prime Minister has also weathered criticism over the sacking of Lord Mandelson as US Ambassador and Angela Rayner’s resignation as Deputy Prime Minister.
Labour MPs are reportedly “privately urging” Burnham to mount a challenge, with one source suggesting “there are many more than 80 MPs who would nominate him” – the threshold needed to trigger a leadership contest.
However, Burnham’s path back to Westminster remains complicated. Two Labour MPs who were on “resignation watch” – Andrew Gwynne and Graham Stringer – have both ruled out stepping down to create a by-election opportunity for the mayor. Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf warned that Burnham “faces the same dilemma as Boris” in finding a safe seat, noting that Reform would mount a strong challenge in any Greater Manchester constituency.
When pressed on whether he would fight a by-election if one arose, Burnham said: “I honestly don’t know, it’s a hypothetical question.” He added: “If events change, I’m not necessarily going to be stuck religiously in one way of thinking.”
The theoretical polling showing Labour could overtake Reform under Burnham’s leadership will fuel speculation about Starmer’s future. With local elections approaching in May 2025, many Labour MPs see them as a make-or-break moment for the Prime Minister.
Burnham’s “aspirational socialism” platform includes calls for public control of housing, energy, water and rail, a 50p top rate of income tax, and higher council tax on expensive properties in southern England. He has also advocated for proportional representation and closer cooperation with other progressive parties.
As the Labour conference approaches, all eyes will be on whether Burnham uses the platform to further position himself as the party’s leader-in-waiting, ready to take on what he describes as the “existential” threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
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Image Credit:
Andy Burnham, 2016 Labour Party Conference (cropped) — photo by Rwendland, CC BY-SA 4.0
