Military chiefs warn Britain must prepare for conflict within three years as PM scrambles to find billions for defence
Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure to hike taxes on hardworking Britons to fund his ambitious plan to make the UK “war-ready” – as military chiefs warn the nation could face conflict within three years.
The Prime Minister yesterday announced the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, pledging to boost military expenditure to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and eventually 3% – but crucially failed to explain how ordinary taxpayers won’t be left footing the massive bill.
In a dramatic intervention, Britain’s top generals have warned that the UK must urgently prepare for potential war with Russia, with Army chief General Sir Roly Walker declaring the nation faces an “axis of upheaval” and must be ready to “deter or fight a war in three years.
The stark warning comes as Starmer announced on Tuesday that the hike in defence spending will total 13.4 billion pounds ($17bn) every year after cutting overseas aid from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent until 2027.
But defence experts are already warning that the foreign aid cuts won’t come close to covering the massive costs – potentially leaving Chancellor Rachel Reeves scrambling to find billions more through tax rises.
‘Tyrants like Putin only respond to strength’
In a combative address to MPs, “Tyrants like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin only respond to strength,” Starmer said in an address to U.K. lawmakers that focused on what he called a “new era” of insecurity in Europe.
The PM’s announcement represents the “biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War,” and necessary because “tyrants like (Russian President Vladimir) Putin only respond to strength.
But critics immediately pointed out that slashing the foreign aid budget would only cover a fraction of the costs, with the remaining billions likely to come from already-stretched taxpayers.
One was, he said, that we must tax the rich more because they’ve got the money, and they must, therefore, make the sacrifice because we can’t ask what he would have described as ordinary people to make that sacrifice because we’re also asking them to serve in the front line to deliver the victory, according to tax expert Richard Murphy, who has called for wealth taxes to fund defence.
Military brass sound the alarm
The urgency of the situation was underlined by Britain’s military leadership, who have delivered increasingly dire warnings about the state of the armed forces.
General Sir Patrick Sanders said the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a sign of things to come, warning that the lessons of previous wars must be remembered before it is too late. “Our predecessors failed to perceive the implications of the so-called July Crisis in 1914 and stumbled into the most ghastly of wars,” he said.
Even more alarmingly, Sir Patrick wants British men and women to be prepared to fight if Nato goes to war with Russia, who have gained the upper hand in its invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, defence chiefs have admitted that “We are concerned about our overall readiness. We are concerned about our ability to sustain the fight”, highlighting critical gaps in munitions, medical support, and chemical defences.
Tax burden set to soar
The UK’s tax burden is already at historic highs, and experts warn Starmer’s defence splurge will push it even higher. As described elsewhere in this chapter, and also illustrated in Chart A based on the OECD’s measure, the UK’s tax burden is set to rise to a post-war high of 37.7 per cent of GDP in 2027-28 (on a UK ONS National Accounts basis).
With the government already committed to protecting pensioners and refusing to raise income tax rates, the burden is likely to fall on middle-class families through stealth taxes and fiscal drag.
‘Battle-ready, armour-clad nation’
In a bellicose speech yesterday, The United Kingdom will build as many as a dozen new nuclear-powered attack submarines, get its army ready to fight a war in Europe and become “a battle-ready, armor-clad nation,” Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed on Monday.
The government has also announced plans to build a 1.5 billion-pound ($2.0 billion) plan to build at least six new weapons and explosives factories.
But former defence officials have warned that even these massive increases may not be enough. Former British Military intelligence officer Philip Ingram also told The Times newspaper’s radio programme that Starmer should increase his pledge to “3 to 5 percent” of GDP for defence. The country needs to take a “war footing” because the path to World War III is becoming “clearer”, he said.
Aid groups furious at cuts
The decision to slash foreign aid has sparked fury among international development organisations. Now is the time to step up and tackle poverty, conflict and insecurity, not further reduce the aid budget,” Miliband, who like Starmer is a member of the Labour Party, said in response to the cuts.
This is a short-sighted and appalling move,” said Romilly Greenhill, chief executive officer of Bond, a network for organisations working in international development and humanitarian assistance.
Trump pressure mounts
The timing of Starmer’s announcement – just before his meeting with President Trump in Washington – is no coincidence. Trump has called on members of the NATO military alliance, which includes the UK, to commit to spending 5 percent of their GDPs on defence, a threshold that the US, which has the world’s largest military, does not meet.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth welcomed the spending rise after speaking to British defence minister John Healey. A strong step from an enduring partner,” Hegseth said on X.
Army at smallest size in 300 years
The scale of the challenge facing Britain’s armed forces was laid bare by military chiefs, who admitted the army is now at its smallest size in 300 years. Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones: Our war fighting equipment is simply not fit for purpose. … That’s terrifying.
Former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger delivered an even starker assessment: “We have disarmed militarily, self-evidently,” said Younger. “We’ve largely dismantled our military and industrial base, which is a big problem”.
What it means for YOUR wallet
The numbers that matter:
- Current defence spending: 2.3% of GDP
- Target by 2027: 2.5% of GDP
- Long-term goal: 3% of GDP
- Annual cost increase: £13.4 billion
- Foreign aid cuts: Only covers fraction of costs
- UK tax burden: Already heading for post-war high of 37.7% of GDP
Where the money could come from:
- Stealth taxes through fiscal drag
- Wealth taxes on the rich
- Cuts to other public services
- Higher borrowing
- National Insurance increases
The bottom line: With the government ruling out income tax rises and protecting pensioners, middle Britain looks set to bear the brunt of funding Starmer’s military ambitions through a combination of stealth taxes and service cuts.
As one defence expert put it bluntly: “You get the world you pay for – and right now, we can’t afford the world we need.
Image credit: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives Press Statement (54279164638) by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
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