Starmer set to be strongarmed into 3.5% defence budget plus extra 1.5% for spies and infrastructure at crucial summit this month
Britain will be forced to commit to a massive increase in defence spending that could cost taxpayers an extra £30 billion a year within a decade, as NATO bows to pressure from Donald Trump for allies to dramatically boost their military budgets.
Sir Keir Starmer faces being strongarmed into agreeing to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035 – far beyond his current commitment of 2.5% – at a crucial NATO summit in The Hague later this month.
In a double whammy for stretched public finances, the Prime Minister will also likely be forced to commit a further 1.5% of GDP to defence-related areas such as spy agencies and infrastructure, taking the total security spend to an eye-watering 5% of national income.
The bombshell spending demands come as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte scrambles to keep President Trump happy after the US leader called for European nations to spend 5% of their GDP on defence – warning he would not defend countries that fail to pay their way.
‘NO CHOICE BUT TO AGREE’
Senior defence sources have revealed there is “bemusement” in the Ministry of Defence about why Starmer’s government has been tying itself in knots over whether to commit to 3% spending when they will have “no choice” but to agree to even higher targets at the summit on June 24-25.
The UK will without a doubt have to sign up to a much higher target in three weeks’ time at the NATO summit in The Hague,” a senior defence source told reporters.
Another source was even more blunt: “The UK has to commit to this spending target, or else we can no longer call ourselves a leader within NATO.”
WARFARE VS WELFARE
The massive spending commitment threatens to blow a hole in Labour’s domestic agenda, forcing the Prime Minister to choose between bombs and bullets or winter fuel payments and childcare.
An extra 0.5% of GDP on top of Starmer’s current “ambition” to reach 3% would be equivalent to at least £12.8 billion in today’s money – but that figure would rise significantly as the UK economy grows each year.
By 2035, the total cost of moving from the current 2.3% spending to 3.5% could exceed £30 billion annually – money that would have to be found through tax rises or cuts to other departments.
TRUMP’S ULTIMATUM
The pressure stems directly from President Trump, who has repeatedly criticised NATO allies for “ripping off” the United States by failing to meet defence spending targets.
During his campaign, Trump threatened he would “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to countries that didn’t meet NATO spending goals – a threat that sent shockwaves through European capitals.
Since returning to the White House, he has called for European countries to allocate 5% of their GDP to defence – more than the 3.4% currently spent by the US itself.
RUTTE’S COMPROMISE
NATO chief Mark Rutte, the former Dutch Prime Minister, is credited with crafting a face-saving compromise that would allow Trump to claim victory while not completely bankrupting European nations.
His proposal splits the 5% target into two tiers:
- 3.5% of GDP on “core” military capabilities and equipment
- 1.5% of GDP on broader security-related spending including infrastructure, cybersecurity and resilience
I assume that in The Hague we will agree on a high defence spend target of in total 5%,” Rutte confirmed at a NATO Parliamentary Assembly meeting, adding it would be “considerably north of 3%” for core military spending.
BRITAIN’S SPECIAL BURDEN
The UK faces particular pressure as one of NATO’s leading members, with unique responsibilities including:
- Providing the alliance’s deputy supreme commander in Europe
- Committing its nuclear weapons to defend all NATO members
- Being the third-highest spender in cash terms after the US and Germany
Sources say it would be “inconceivable” for Britain not to follow suit when even traditionally defence-shy Germany has signalled plans to move towards the 5% level.
STARMER’S DILEMMA
The Prime Minister is due to hold crisis talks as early as today to decide on the defence spending target ahead of the summit.
Having already committed to reaching 2.5% by 2027 – three years earlier than the Conservatives planned – Starmer now faces demands that would dwarf that promise.
The timing couldn’t be worse, with Labour having promised to fix Britain’s crumbling public services while also pledging fiscal responsibility.
THE RUSSIA FACTOR
NATO officials argue the increased spending is essential given the growing threat from Russia, with Rutte warning that current spending levels are “not nearly enough to stay safe in the years to come.
“This is urgent, it is urgent now,” Rutte declared at a recent Baltic summit. “This cannot wait until some summit somewhere.”
Based on NATO’s internal capability assessments, military planners believe the alliance needs spending levels of up to 3.7% of GDP to adequately defend against potential Russian aggression.
EUROPEAN PANIC
The spending demands have sent shockwaves through European capitals, with many governments already struggling with strained public finances and angry voters.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz bluntly rejected Trump’s 5% target, saying it “would only be possible with massive tax increases or massive cuts to many things that are important to us.
Spain has emerged as the sole holdout against the new targets, while Italy – currently spending just 1.5% – faces an even bigger challenge to meet the goals.
WHERE’S THE MONEY?
For Britain, finding an extra £30 billion or more annually would require either:
- Massive tax rises hitting already squeezed families
- Severe cuts to the NHS, schools and welfare
- Abandoning pledges on childcare and other social programmes
- Dramatic increases in borrowing, adding to the national debt
With the UK’s national debt already at its highest level since the 1960s, the fiscal arithmetic looks increasingly impossible.
THE DEADLINE LOOMS
As the June summit approaches, Starmer faces an impossible choice: agree to the spending targets and face domestic political disaster, or resist and risk being branded as weak on defence by Trump.
One thing is certain – the era of the “peace dividend” that followed the Cold War is well and truly over, with British taxpayers set to foot the bill for a new arms race that shows no sign of ending.
Image: Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends NATO Summit (53848577619).jpg
Author: Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street
License: Open Government Licence v3.0
Source: Wikimedia Commons
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