Former Home Secretary breaks ranks to attack leader’s climate ‘scepticism’ as YouGov survey shows Conservatives on just 18% – one point from oblivion
Kemi Badenoch‘s leadership has been dealt a devastating blow as former Home Secretary James Cleverly launched a savage attack on her environmental stance – just as a shocking new poll showed the Tories slumping to third place behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
In his first major speech since losing the leadership election to Badenoch, Cleverly will today warn that Conservatives must reject climate change “luddites” and embrace green technology – in a direct challenge to his leader’s self-declared “net zero scepticism.”
The dramatic intervention comes as a damning YouGov poll reveals the scale of the Conservative catastrophe, with the party languishing on just 18 per cent – a mere one point ahead of the Liberal Democrats and facing potential oblivion.
Reform surge to top as Tories collapse
The explosive poll puts Reform UK in first place on 28 per cent, with Labour trailing on 22 per cent and the Conservatives humiliated in third on 18 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats are breathing down the Tories’ necks on 17 per cent, with the Green Party on 9 per cent.
If replicated at a general election, the results would represent the final collapse of the Conservative Party as a major political force – potentially leaving them as the fourth largest party in Parliament.
Cleverly’s devastating attack
Speaking to the pro-green Conservative Environment Network, Sir James will tear into both his own leader’s position and Reform’s climate denial, declaring: “The idea that we must choose between a strong economy and protecting our environment is outdated.
The future I believe in is one where these two aims go hand in hand, driving innovation and opportunity,” he is set to say – a direct rebuke to Badenoch’s March declaration that net zero by 2050 was “impossible.
Drawing on Britain’s “proud history of innovation,” Cleverly will urge: “We can lead once again, this time in the realm of green technology.”
‘Impossible without bankrupting us’
The former Cabinet minister’s intervention stands in stark contrast to Badenoch’s dismissive stance on climate action.
Speaking in March as she launched her policy renewal process, the Conservative leader declared herself a “net zero sceptic” and claimed: “I don’t say that with pleasure. Or because I have some ideological desire to dismantle it.”
I say it because anyone who has done any serious analysis knows it can’t be achieved without a serious drop in our living standards or by bankrupting us.
Her comments marked a dramatic break from the party’s commitment to net zero since 2019 – a target passed into law under Boris Johnson’s government.
Reform’s climate denial
Cleverly’s speech also takes aim at Reform UK, which has pledged to scrap net zero entirely.
Deputy leader Richard Tice has claimed there is “no evidence” for man-made climate change – a position contrary to overwhelming scientific consensus.
The intervention suggests deep Conservative anxiety about losing further ground to Farage’s insurgent party, which has successfully hoovered up disaffected Tory voters with its anti-establishment message.
Tories hemorrhaging support
Recent polling shows the scale of the Conservative collapse, with the party losing 15% of their 2024 voters to Reform UK while winning back just 4% of Reform’s supporters.
Among crucial demographics, the picture is even bleaker:
- Just 5% of 18-24 year olds back the Conservatives (versus 19% for Reform)
- Only a third of working-class voters support either main party
- Even among over-65s, traditionally rock-solid Tory territory, Reform trails by just 5 points
Badenoch’s failing leadership
The poll represents a damning verdict on Badenoch’s leadership, which has failed to arrest the party’s decline since she took over from Rishi Sunak.
Despite positioning herself as a straight-talking reformer who would “tell the truth,” her net favourability ratings have plummeted as more voters get to know her.
In early November, 39% of Britons didn’t know enough about Badenoch to form an opinion. Now that figure has fallen to 33% – but her net rating has collapsed from -20 to -31.
Labour’s own crisis
While the Conservatives face existential crisis, Labour can take little comfort from the poll despite being in government.
Keir Starmer’s party has seen its support crater from the general election, with only 54% of their July voters saying they would back Labour again.
The party has hemorrhaged support in all directions – losing 7% to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Greens, 5% to Reform and 4% to the Tories.
Climate wars tear Tories apart
Cleverly’s intervention exposes the deep rifts within the Conservative Party over environmental policy – a divide that threatens to tear the party apart.
On one side stand traditional One Nation Tories who see green technology as an economic opportunity. On the other, a growing faction of climate sceptics desperate to win back Reform voters by abandoning environmental commitments.
With the party already in third place and facing potential relegation to fourth, the timing of Cleverly’s attack could hardly be more damaging for Badenoch’s already faltering leadership.
What happens next?
As the Conservatives face their darkest hour, questions are mounting about Badenoch’s future as leader.
Having promised renewal but delivered only further decline, pressure is building for yet another leadership election – the party’s fourth in as many years.
But with Reform UK ascendant and the Tories potentially facing extinction, even a new leader may be powerless to prevent the final collapse of Britain’s oldest political party.
Image credit: Home Secretary James Cleverly hosts the Calais Group in Brussels on 4 March 2024 – 3 by UK Government, licensed under CC BY 2.0.
