Andy Burnham has dramatically fuelled Labour leadership speculation by refusing to commit to serving his full term as Greater Manchester Mayor, admitting he “honestly doesn’t know” whether he would stand in a by-election for a Commons seat.
The former Cabinet minister stressed his “full intention” was to remain in post until mayoral elections in May 2028, but pointedly left the door open for a Westminster return as Sir Keir Starmer’s government faces unprecedented turmoil following Angela Rayner’s resignation and Lord Peter Mandelson’s sacking.
Speaking to BBC Radio Manchester on Thursday, Mr Burnham admitted that “whenever Westminster’s in flux, I get dragged in,” before suggesting any comeback would need to be in response to demands from the party rather than personal ambition.
“It wouldn’t be me sort of saying right I’m going to put myself right out there again. It would have to sort of come in a different direction of people,” the Mayor told presenters, in comments that will intensify pressure on the embattled Prime Minister.
His intervention comes as extraordinary new polling shows Labour has collapsed to just 16 per cent support nationally, its lowest ever recorded level, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surging to 34 per cent. The Find Out Now research, conducted between 10-12 September, puts Reform 18 points ahead of Labour, though the firm has consistently detected larger leads for Mr Farage’s party than other pollsters.
The Greater Manchester Mayor, dubbed “the King in the North” by supporters, has emerged as the overwhelming favourite to succeed Sir Keir among both Labour members and the wider public. An Ipsos poll in July found 35 per cent of Britons believe Mr Burnham would make a good Labour leader, compared to just 26 per cent for Sir Keir.
Mr Burnham’s carefully calibrated comments follow his launch last week of a new left-wing campaign group called “Mainstream”, widely seen as laying groundwork for a leadership challenge. The organisation, which calls for wealth taxes, nationalising utility companies and ending the two-child benefit cap, has been compared to the Labour Together vehicle Sir Keir used to win the leadership in 2020.
“This administration is coming to an end,” one Labour MP backing Mr Burnham told The Telegraph. “He really does represent what the Labour Party is about. He’s not only demonstrated that across Manchester but the leadership he does give on many issues, I think that’s the kind of leadership we need at this time.”
Asked directly whether he would fight a by-election in Greater Manchester if one arose, Mr Burnham said: “I honestly don’t know, it’s a hypothetical question.”
While stressing he had never ruled out returning to the Commons, he added: “If events change, I’m not necessarily going to be stuck religiously in one way of thinking.”
Labour sources believe the most likely route back would be through the Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton, where MP Andrew Gwynne was suspended in February after sending sexist messages in a WhatsApp group. There is speculation Gwynne could resign his seat to trigger a by-election, though party figures close to Sir Keir are reportedly “begging” him not to.
The Mayor’s positioning comes amid extraordinary chaos at the heart of government. Angela Rayner resigned as Deputy Prime Minister on 5 September after an ethics investigation found she had breached the ministerial code by underpaying £40,000 in stamp duty on her Hove flat. Her departure triggered a hasty Cabinet reshuffle that Sir Keir had hoped would mark a “phase two reset” of his struggling administration.
But that reset was immediately derailed when Lord Mandelson was sacked as US Ambassador on 11 September following revelations about his relationship with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Emails showed Lord Mandelson had told Epstein his conviction was “wrongful” and urged him to “fight for early release” after his 2008 sentencing.
Clive Lewis became the first Labour MP to openly question Sir Keir’s future, warning colleagues felt “concerned, slightly downtrodden, a little bit browbeaten” and that there was a “very dangerous atmosphere” in the parliamentary Labour party.
“You see a Labour Prime Minister who feels that he’s lost control within the first year,” Mr Lewis told reporters. The person who is eight points ahead of us is Nigel Farage. That terrifies me. It terrifies my constituents, and it terrifies a lot of people in this country.”
Mr Burnham is expected to directly challenge Sir Keir at Labour’s annual conference later this month, calling for a “reset” to help the party regain public support. He has already backed Lucy Powell in the deputy leadership race rather than the government’s favoured candidate, Bridget Phillipson, in what many see as manoeuvring to secure an ally at the top of the party.
Political editor Anna Mikhailova told GB News: “Andy Burnham actually said, how can we have a Labour Party that has kicked out people like Rachel Musk. He actually namechecked the MP who was suspended over the winter over the welfare reform rebellion.”
The former Health Secretary, who served in Gordon Brown’s Cabinet and unsuccessfully challenged Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership in 2015, has consistently topped polls of Labour members about potential successors. A June Survation poll for LabourList found 57 per cent of members placed him in their top three choices to succeed Sir Keir, with 29 per cent making him their first choice.
His appeal extends beyond the party membership. The July Ipsos research showed Mr Burnham beating Sir Keir, Rayner and Health Secretary Wes Streeting among the general public for who would make a good Labour leader.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch seized on the turmoil, declaring: “Angela Rayner is finally gone. It says everything about Keir Starmer’s weak leadership that he had to wait for a report before acting. He has no backbone and no convictions.”
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage predicted “splits in Labour are coming” following Rayner’s resignation, adding: “It was inevitable, wasn’t it really. You can’t be housing secretary and avoid £40,000 worth of stamp duty.”
One Labour backbencher suggested the Mandelson scandal could be “terminal” for Downing Street Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, who had reportedly lobbied for the appointment. Another MP warned: “Even a Morgan problem is ultimately a Keir problem.”
With local elections looming in May that many predict will be catastrophic for Labour, MPs are openly discussing timelines for Sir Keir’s potential departure. The Prime Minister’s approval ratings have plummeted to -54, comparable to Margaret Thatcher’s worst scores.
Mr Burnham’s refusal to rule out a Westminster return represents his clearest signal yet that he is preparing for a leadership challenge should Sir Keir fall. His Manchester mayoralty has been marked by significant achievements, including the expansion of the Bee Network public transport system, giving him a strong platform from which to launch any bid.
“If the party thinks well maybe it is your time, I wouldn’t turn away from that,” Mr Burnham told The Telegraph two years ago, and Thursday’s comments suggest that calculation remains unchanged as Labour’s crisis deepens.
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Image Credit:
Andy Burnham giving his final Shadow Home Secretary speech at the 2016 Labour Party Conference, Liverpool (28 September 2016) — photo by Rwendland, CC BY-SA 4.0.
