Belarus has delivered a chilling warning at the United Nations that humanity stands “closer than ever” to nuclear catastrophe, as Moscow prepares to deploy its new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles in the country bordering three NATO members.
Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov told the UN General Assembly that the symbolic Doomsday Clock shows “less than one and a half minutes to midnight” representing nuclear apocalypse, claiming this marks “the closest the clock has ever been to midnight.” His stark assessment comes as Russia finalises plans to position nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus by the end of 2025, dramatically escalating tensions with the West.
The deployment would place the weapons, capable of carrying nuclear warheads at speeds exceeding Mach 10, within striking distance of Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Moscow’s decision follows President Vladimir Putin’s announcement in August that the first batch of Oreshnik missiles had entered service with Russian forces.
Doomsday Clock Reality Check
Whilst Ryzhenkov’s apocalyptic rhetoric grabbed headlines, his specific claim about the Doomsday Clock requires clarification. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists actually set the clock at 89 seconds to midnight in January 2025, not “less than one and a half minutes” as the minister claimed.
The clock, maintained since 1947 as a metaphor for humanity’s proximity to catastrophe, moved one second closer from its previous 90-second position. This represents the nearest to midnight the symbolic timepiece has ever been, reflecting escalating nuclear risks, climate change and emerging technologies.
“We now move the Doomsday Clock from 90 seconds to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to catastrophe,” the Bulletin stated in its January announcement. The organisation cited the Ukraine war, nuclear modernisation programmes and the collapse of arms control agreements as key factors.
Strategic Missile Deployment
Russia’s planned Oreshnik deployment in Belarus represents a significant military escalation near NATO borders. The intermediate-range ballistic missile, first used operationally against Dnipro in Ukraine in November 2024, can reportedly strike targets across Europe with conventional or nuclear warheads.
State Secretary of Belarus’ Security Council Alexander Volfovich confirmed in May that “the locations for its deployment have already been determined,” with systems expected to arrive before 2026. Military analysts suggest eastern Belarus, close to Russia’s Smolensk and Bryansk regions, as likely deployment sites.
The Oreshnik, meaning “hazel tree” in Russian, features multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles capable of delivering several warheads simultaneously. Putin has boasted the weapon’s warheads plunge towards targets at speeds up to Mach 10, making them “immune to being intercepted.”
Belarus Blames Western ‘Re-armament’
Ryzhenkov blamed Western nations for forcing Belarus’s hand, claiming “the West has quietly begun to re-arm” whilst “laying mines on our borders in Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.” He argued Belarus “was forced to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to guarantee its security.”
The minister referenced last year’s security agreement between Belarus and Russia, stating it “provides for the use of any type of weapon, including nuclear weapons, for defence.” This treaty effectively extends Moscow’s nuclear umbrella over Belarus amid heightened tensions with NATO.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled for over 30 years with Russian backing, allowed Moscow to use his territory to launch the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The deployment of advanced missile systems further cements Belarus’s role as a forward military base for Russian operations.
Nuclear Escalation Concerns
The Oreshnik deployment follows Russia’s earlier positioning of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in 2023, including Iskander-M short-range missiles near the Polish border. Tactical nuclear weapons, whilst smaller than strategic warheads, remain enormously destructive battlefield weapons.
Military experts warn the Oreshnik’s deployment significantly reduces warning time for potential targets in Ukraine and NATO countries. Justin Crump, CEO of strategic intelligence firm Sibylline, stated the system “increases the threat to Ukraine’s air defences by an order of magnitude.”
A secret military base is reportedly under construction near Pavlovka village, south of Minsk, to house the weapons. Belarus claims it retains dozens of Soviet-era sites suitable for missile deployment, though modernisation may prove challenging given resource constraints.
Western Response Remains Cautious
NATO’s existing missile defence systems, including Patriot batteries in Poland and Aegis Ashore installations in Romania, were designed before hypersonic weapons emerged. Their effectiveness against the Oreshnik’s speed and manoeuvrability remains untested in combat conditions.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that whilst the deployment “does not significantly increase the immediate threat” given Russia’s existing capabilities, it represents psychological pressure designed to intimidate European populations and governments.
U.S. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh identified the Oreshnik as a variant of Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intermediate-range missile, noting Moscow likely possesses “only a handful” of these experimental weapons despite Putin’s claims of mass production.
Broader Nuclear Modernisation
The Belarus deployment forms part of broader nuclear modernisation programmes among major powers. China, Russia and the United States are all expanding or upgrading their arsenals, prompting fears of a three-way arms race as Cold War-era treaties collapse.
Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, signed by Putin last autumn, formally lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use. The document states Moscow could employ nuclear arms against conventional attacks threatening Russian or Belarusian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The doctrine change followed Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against Russian territory, which Putin described as crossing a “red line.” November’s Oreshnik strike on Dnipro served as Moscow’s direct response to these attacks.
Regional Security Implications
Belarus’s transformation into a nuclear-armed Russian outpost dramatically alters Eastern European security dynamics. The country’s 1,084-kilometre border with Ukraine provides Moscow with additional launch positions for potential strikes, whilst its NATO borders enable rapid targeting of alliance members.
During recent Zapad-2025 military exercises with Russia, Belarusian forces practised deploying the Oreshnik system, according to officials in Minsk. The drills prompted Poland and Latvia to temporarily close their borders with Belarus as a precautionary measure.
Colonel General Sergei Karakaev, commander of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, indicated new formations would be created specifically to operate the Oreshnik systems in Belarus, suggesting permanent deployment rather than rotational presence.
International Condemnation
The planned deployment has drawn sharp criticism from Western capitals and regional neighbours. Polish officials described the move as “provocative” whilst Lithuanian authorities warned of increased risks to Baltic security.
Ukraine views the deployment as particularly threatening given Belarus’s role in the 2022 invasion. The proximity of launch sites would give Ukrainian air defences minimal reaction time, potentially overwhelming existing Western-supplied systems.
Former Russian defence engineers have questioned Moscow’s ability to mass-produce the Oreshnik quickly, citing bureaucratic inefficiencies and technological constraints. However, even limited numbers could serve Putin’s strategy of nuclear intimidation.
What Happens Next
As 2025 progresses, intelligence services will closely monitor construction at Belarusian military sites and the movement of Russian missile units. The actual deployment timeline may slip given production challenges and the complexity of establishing operational infrastructure.
The Oreshnik deployment represents another step in Europe’s slide towards a new missile crisis, reminiscent of Cold War tensions. With arms control agreements in tatters and nuclear rhetoric intensifying, Ryzhenkov’s doomsday warning, whilst hyperbolic in specifics, captures genuine risks facing the continent.
For now, the world watches as Belarus deepens its military integration with Russia, hosting weapons systems that blur the line between conventional deterrence and nuclear brinkmanship in Europe’s most volatile region.
Follow for more updates on Britannia Daily
Image Credit:
Maxim Ryzhenkov — photo by Maxim Ryzhenkov / Government of Belarus, licensed under CC BY 4.0
