Conservative Senedd member Laura Anne Jones has defected to Reform UK, the party announced today at the Royal Welsh Show in Builth Wells, Powys. The announcement comes as the latest blow to the Welsh Conservatives ahead of next year’s expanded Senedd election.
Jones, who has represented South Wales East since July 2020, made the switch at Europe’s largest agricultural show, which attracts thousands of visitors annually. The timing of the defection is particularly significant, coming less than a year before the Senedd election in May 2026.
The defection comes as recent opinion polls show a dramatic shift in Welsh politics, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru now vying for pole position. Labour sits in third place and the Conservatives have fallen to fourth in most surveys.
Historic Changes to Welsh Politics
The next Senedd election will see historic changes to Wales’s democratic system. For the first time, voters will elect 96 members to the Welsh parliament, an increase from the current 60. The expansion represents the most significant reform since devolution began in 1999.
The election will also introduce a new voting system, abandoning the current mixed system of first-past-the-post and regional lists in favour of closed-list proportional representation. Wales will be divided into 16 six-member constituencies, created by pairing the 32 Westminster constituencies.
Under the new system, voters will cast a single vote for a political party rather than individual candidates. Seats will be allocated using the D’Hondt method, making the results more proportional to the actual vote share.
Jones’s Controversial Background
Laura Anne Jones, 46, has served as a Senedd member during two separate periods, first from 2003 to 2007 and again since 2020. Her recent tenure has been marked by controversy.
In May 2024, Jones was investigated by both South Wales Police and the Senedd’s Standards Commissioner for allegedly falsifying expenses claims. Messages released in June 2024 appeared to show Jones instructing staff to claim expenses for more petrol than she used.
Further controversy emerged in August 2024 when additional messages showed Jones using a racial slur in internal Conservative group discussions. She was cleared by South Wales Police in December 2024, with the investigation handed back to the Senedd Standards Commissioner.
Despite these controversies, Jones had maintained her position within the Welsh Conservative group, most recently serving as Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Local Government, Housing and the Armed Forces.
Reform UK’s Welsh Ambitions
Jones becomes the latest in a series of high-profile defections to Reform UK. Earlier this month, former Welsh Secretary David Jones joined the party after more than 50 years as a Conservative member, though he stated he would not seek elected office.
Reform UK has been actively building its presence in Wales ahead of the 2026 election. Chairman Zia Yusuf has welcomed the new constituency arrangements, stating they allow the party to “start planning for the 2026 Senedd election” with full belief they can become “the party to finally put an end to decades of Labour mismanagement.
The party has been establishing local branch infrastructure across Wales and positioning itself as the primary alternative for voters dissatisfied with both Labour and Conservative governance.
Polling Shows Seismic Shift
Recent opinion polls suggest Welsh politics is undergoing its most dramatic transformation since devolution. A YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University in May showed Plaid Cymru leading on 30%, with Reform UK second on 25%, Labour third on 18%, and the Conservatives fourth on just 13%.
This represents a catastrophic collapse for Labour, which has won every devolved election since 1999. Their 18% vote share would be their worst result since devolution began 26 years ago.
For the Conservatives, the figures are equally dire, representing roughly half their performance in the 2021 Senedd election. The party faces the prospect of being overtaken by Reform UK as the main right-of-centre force in Welsh politics.
Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre described the polling as representing “a substantial shift” and supporting “a broader pattern emerging throughout the UK – both Labour and Conservative parties are experiencing substantial erosion of support.
Coalition Politics Beckons
Under the new proportional system, current polling would translate to approximately 35 seats for Plaid Cymru, 30 for Reform UK, 19 for Labour, and just 9 for the Conservatives. With 49 seats needed for a majority, coalition government appears inevitable.
Welsh Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan has already indicated openness to coalition with Plaid Cymru “if needs must” but ruled out working with Reform UK, describing it as a “red line”.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has similarly ruled out cooperation with Reform, describing their worldviews as “fundamentally different”. However, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said his party “would work with any other Senedd party.
Agricultural Show Setting
The choice of the Royal Welsh Show for Jones’s defection announcement is symbolically significant. The event, held annually in Builth Wells, represents the heart of rural Wales and attracts visitors from across the farming community.
Rural voters have expressed increasing dissatisfaction with both Labour and Conservative policies, particularly regarding agricultural regulations and support. Jones herself had recently criticised inheritance tax changes affecting family farms and livestock movement restrictions in her final blog as a Conservative member.
Looking Ahead
Jones’s defection adds momentum to Reform UK’s Welsh campaign with less than a year until the election. The party appears well-positioned to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction with traditional parties and the opportunities presented by the new electoral system.
For the Welsh Conservatives, already facing their worst polling in two decades, the loss of an experienced member like Jones represents another blow to their credibility. The party must now contemplate the possibility of finishing fourth in an election for the first time.
As Wales prepares for its most significant electoral change since devolution, the political landscape appears more fragmented and unpredictable than ever. The era of Labour dominance may be ending, replaced by a new age of coalition politics and multiple competing parties.
The 2026 Senedd election, scheduled for 7 May, promises to be a watershed moment in Welsh politics. With an expanded parliament, a new voting system, and dramatically shifted voter loyalties, Wales appears set for its most consequential election in a generation.
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Image Credit:
Laura Anne Jones MS AS – Photo by Senedd Cymru / Welsh Parliament, licensed under CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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