Sir Keir Starmer’s flagship migrant returns agreement with France faces serious jeopardy after the European Commission demanded urgent clarification following objections from five Mediterranean countries who fear they would be forced to accept an influx of deported migrants.
Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus sent a strongly-worded letter to the Commission expressing “serious concerns” about the proposed UK-France “one-in, one-out” deal and its potential consequences for southern European states. The quintet warned the bilateral agreement could result in migrants being redirected to their shores under existing EU asylum rules.
The European Commission has now intervened, asking both Britain and France for urgent clarification on the agreement that was due to be unveiled as a centerpiece of President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the UK this week. France postponed a planned briefing on the deal last week following the Commission’s intervention, sources confirmed.
Deal Faces Last-Minute Hurdles
The proposed pilot scheme would allow Britain to return small boat migrants to France within weeks of their arrival in exchange for the UK accepting asylum seekers from France who have legitimate claims such as family reunification. The arrangement aims to deter Channel crossings and “send a clear message” to smuggling networks.
However, the five Mediterranean countries argue that under the EU’s Dublin Regulation, which requires asylum seekers to be processed in their first country of entry, France could simply redirect UK-returned migrants to southern European nations where many first entered the bloc.
“We believe it is essential to clarify whether the agreement may produce any direct or indirect consequences for other member states,” the five countries stated in their letter to the Commission. The nations expressed surprise at France’s intention to sign a bilateral readmission arrangement outside the EU framework.
Home Office sources told The Telegraph that the returns scheme remained a “work in progress.” Uncertainty now surrounds whether negotiations can be completed in time for Thursday’s UK-France summit, the conclusion of Macron’s three-day state visit.
Rising Channel Crossings Fuel Urgency
The diplomatic setback comes as Channel crossings continue to surge. According to UK government data, there were 44,125 irregular Channel crossings in the year ending March 2025 – a 14% increase compared to the previous year. The Migration Observatory at Oxford University reported approximately 14,800 small boat crossings from January to May 2025, marking the highest number ever recorded during that period.
To date, the number of migrants arriving in Britain by boat in 2025 has reached nearly 8,200, marking a rise of 31 percent compared to the same point last year. At least 10 people are believed to have died during the perilous crossing so far this year.
The French Interior Ministry has told several media outlets that the scheme aims to discourage smuggling networks. French and British authorities are reportedly in the final stages of negotiations, according to EU sources.
Mediterranean States Lead Opposition
Italy and Spain are the chief orchestrators of the opposition letter, while Cyprus and Greece supported it primarily out of solidarity with their fellow Mediterranean countries, an EU official said. The countries fear being left to handle migrants France receives from Britain.
Under the Dublin Regulation, the country through which an asylum seeker first entered Europe is responsible for processing their application. While the regulation prioritizes family reunification, in practice the most frequently applied criterion is irregular entry at external EU borders.
“We take note — with a degree of surprise — of the reported intention of France to sign a bilateral readmission arrangement,” the letter from the five nations stated. They highlighted concerns that the agreement was being negotiated outside the EU framework and could increase migratory pressure on the EU’s southern borders.
The Mediterranean countries already face significant pressure from migration routes. Central and Western Mediterranean routes leading to Italy and Spain saw slight increases in the first months of 2025 compared to the previous year, while Greece experienced a significant 30% decrease in irregular crossings from the Eastern Mediterranean route.
Brexit Complicates Returns Policy
Since leaving the European Union in 2020, Britain is no longer a signatory to the Dublin Regulation, which previously allowed the UK to return some asylum seekers to EU member states without considering their asylum claims. The regulation ceased to apply to the UK from December 31, 2020.
The UK government has been seeking bilateral agreements to replace the Dublin arrangements. Without such agreements, the UK cannot automatically return asylum seekers who traveled through EU countries, even if their fingerprints were registered in the EU’s Eurodac database.
Campaigners have warned that without new agreements, asylum seekers in Europe lose a safe and legal means of reuniting with relatives in the UK. The government has argued that UK refugee family reunion rules are already sufficient.
Macron Visit Proceeds Despite Uncertainty
President Macron’s state visit, the first by an EU head of state to the UK since Brexit, begins Tuesday with King Charles III hosting the French leader and his wife Brigitte for a three-day official visit. Macron will address the British Parliament and attend a state banquet at Windsor Castle.
Prime Minister Starmer and President Macron spoke Saturday ahead of the visit, with both leaders agreeing the state visit would provide “a historic opportunity to showcase the breadth of the UK-France relationship.” A Downing Street spokesperson said they “hoped to make good progress across a wide range of our joint priorities including migration, growth, defence and security.
The 37th Franco-British Summit on Thursday will focus on aid to Ukraine, joint efforts to halt illegal migration crossing the Channel, and strengthening defense cooperation. However, the migration deal announcement now hangs in the balance.
EU Framework Under Strain
The controversy highlights broader tensions within the EU’s migration framework. In March 2025, the European Commission proposed establishing a Common European System for Returns with swifter, simpler and more effective return procedures across the EU.
The new system aims to ensure return decisions issued in one EU country are visible across the Schengen Information System. However, only about 20% of non-EU nationals ordered to leave the EU actually depart, highlighting the challenges facing return policies.
As part of reforms to the Common European Asylum System, the Dublin III Regulation is set to be replaced by the Asylum and Migration Management Regulation in 2024, introducing new solidarity mechanisms for situations of migratory pressure.
The UK-France negotiations represent an attempt to create bilateral solutions outside this evolving EU framework. However, the Mediterranean countries’ intervention demonstrates the difficulty of negotiating migration agreements that affect multiple European states.
With Macron’s visit imminent and migration remaining a key political issue on both sides of the Channel, the coming days will prove crucial in determining whether Starmer can salvage his flagship returns policy or whether EU solidarity will prevail over bilateral dealmaking.
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Image credit:
Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany on 28 August 2024. Photo via Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY 4.0.
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