Nigel Farage is on track to storm Downing Street with the biggest parliamentary majority in modern British history, according to a bombshell new megapoll that will send shockwaves through Westminster.
Reform UK would sweep to a staggering 445 seats if a general election were held tomorrow, obliterating Labour to just 73 MPs and reducing the Conservatives to a rump of merely seven, the comprehensive survey reveals.
The seat-by-seat projection by Electoral Calculus on behalf of communications firm PLMR, based on polling 7,449 voters, suggests a whopping 13 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats under the dramatic realignment of British politics.
High-profile casualties would include Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, according to the multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) analysis.
The poll, first reported in the Daily Mail, places Reform UK on a commanding 36 per cent of the national vote, with Labour trailing on 21 per cent and the Conservatives languishing on just 15 per cent.
Such a result would hand Farage a majority exceeding even Tony Blair’s historic 1997 landslide, which saw Labour win 418 seats. Reform’s projected 445 seats would dwarf the 326 needed for an outright majority, giving the insurgent party total control of Parliament.
Under the scenario without tactical voting, the Liberal Democrats would secure 42 seats to become the third-largest party, whilst the SNP would take 41. Jeremy Corbyn’s new left-wing Your Party is projected to win 13 seats, with the Tories reduced to seven and the Greens claiming six.
However, the projection acknowledges that tactical voting could significantly alter the outcome. If voters coordinate to block Reform candidates, the poll predicts Farage would secure a smaller but still substantial majority of 84 seats, with 367 MPs in the Commons.
The findings will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street as Sir Keir Starmer’s government grapples with mounting public frustration over migration, the cost of living crisis, and a series of damaging policy U-turns that have tanked Labour’s popularity.
Farage has consistently led opinion polls in recent months, typically enjoying a double-digit advantage over the beleaguered Prime Minister. The Reform leader has successfully tapped into widespread anger over failures to control illegal immigration and soaring living costs that continue to squeeze household budgets.
The poll represents the latest in a series of devastating surveys for the traditional parties. Reform has topped national polls multiple times this year, marking an unprecedented fracturing of Britain’s long-established two-party system.
Sir Keir and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch are both scrambling to adopt strategies aimed at neutralising the Reform threat before the next election, currently scheduled for 2029.
The Prime Minister used Labour’s party conference to accuse Farage of pursuing “racist” deportation policies, attempting to unite the country’s left-wing voters against Reform in what he hopes will become a two-horse race for Downing Street.
Meanwhile, Badenoch is positioning the Conservatives as the party of economic competence, seeking to exploit concerns that neither Labour nor Reform can be trusted to manage the nation’s finances responsibly.
Farage has moved swiftly to counter such attacks by ditching £90 billion worth of tax cut pledges, demonstrating what he describes as economic discipline and fiscal responsibility.
“At the next election, we will present a rigorous and fully-costed manifesto,” Farage declared this week. “Reform will never borrow to spend, as Labour and the Tories have done for so long.”
The dramatic shift in fortunes comes as Chancellor Reeves prepares to inflict further misery on British households with additional tax rises in her November 26 Budget.
For the first time, Reeves admitted today she is considering further tax increases, despite previously claiming last year’s substantial hikes were a one-off measure. The admission threatens to compound Labour’s polling woes as voters already reeling from the cost of living crisis brace for more pain.
The megapoll’s methodology, using MRP analysis, is considered one of the most accurate ways to predict election outcomes. The technique successfully forecast the results of the last three British general elections by building sophisticated models of how different demographic groups vote across all 650 constituencies.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR which commissioned the poll, said the results expose “a remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party” whilst revealing where voter priorities truly lie.
The projection suggests seismic shifts across the political map, with Reform making deep inroads into traditional Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands, as well as sweeping Conservative strongholds in the South and East of England.
Cabinet ministers at risk of losing their seats span the entire government, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Defence Secretary John Healey, and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
The comprehensive nature of the projected losses would leave Labour without many of its most experienced ministers, forcing any future Labour government to be built around a drastically depleted parliamentary party.
For the Conservatives, the poll suggests near-total annihilation, with the party reduced to single digits for the first time in its nearly 200-year history. Such a result would raise existential questions about whether the Tories could recover or whether they would be permanently replaced by Reform as the primary party of the right.
Badenoch, who became Tory leader following the party’s worst-ever election defeat in July 2024, faces the monumental task of rebuilding Conservative credibility with voters who have decisively turned their backs on the party.
The poll indicates that immigration remains the dominant issue for Reform voters, with 83 per cent citing it as a top concern. More broadly, the economy and cost of living are cited by 54 per cent of all voters as their primary worry.
Farage has pledged to introduce sweeping new measures within two weeks of taking office to restore border control and halt illegal arrivals, capitalising on widespread frustration that successive Conservative and Labour governments have failed to control immigration.
The Your Party projection of 13 seats could prove crucial in determining the final outcome. The left-wing vehicle, expected to be led by veteran socialist Jeremy Corbyn, threatens to split the progressive vote and hand additional constituencies to Reform.
If all Your Party supporters instead voted Labour, the poll suggests Labour would gain an additional 44 seats, though this would still leave them far short of the numbers needed to form a government.
The megapoll comes as Reform continues to professionalise its operations, establishing permanent offices in Westminster and attracting both new members and substantial donations from wealthy backers convinced the party represents the future of British politics.
Farage has worked to distance Reform from far-right movements in other European countries, dismissing members accused of racism or bullying to broaden the party’s appeal to mainstream voters concerned about immigration and economic management.
The projected result would mark one of the most dramatic political upheavals in British democratic history, comparable only to the Liberal Party’s collapse in the 1920s when it was supplanted by Labour as one of the two major parties.
Electoral Calculus, which conducted the analysis, is a member of the British Polling Council and adheres to its rigorous standards for transparency and methodology. The firm’s models have proven remarkably accurate in recent elections.
However, polling experts caution that voter intentions can shift dramatically over the four years until the next election is due. Labour will hope to use its time in office to deliver economic growth and improved public services that could win back disillusioned voters.
The Conservatives likewise will gamble that Badenoch can rebuild the party’s credibility by holding the government to account and presenting a compelling alternative vision for Britain’s future.
For now, though, the megapoll suggests British politics has entered uncharted territory, with the traditional two-party duopoly shattered and a populist insurgent party on course to capture power in a landslide that would reshape the nation’s political landscape for a generation.
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Image Credit:
Nigel Farage — photo by Gage Skidmore, licensed under CC BY SA 2.0
