Major MRP survey predicts right-wing party would win outright majority of more than 50 seats as ‘big two’ parties see support collapse to just 41%
Nigel Farage is on course to become Britain’s next Prime Minister with a staggering 377-seat majority, according to an explosive new poll that will send shockwaves through Westminster.
The MRP survey of 5,000 people by PLMR and Electoral Calculus shows Reform UK surging to 31% of the national vote – enough to hand the right-wing party an outright Commons majority without needing any coalition partners.
In scenes that would represent the biggest political earthquake in a century, Labour would crash from 412 seats to just 118, while the Conservatives face near-extinction with a mere 29 MPs – making them the fourth-largest party behind the Liberal Democrats (69).
The bombshell findings suggest that even if every other party joined forces in an unprecedented anti-Reform alliance, they still wouldn’t have enough seats to keep Farage out of Downing Street.
Cabinet Ministers Face the Axe
The poll’s seat-by-seat projections make devastating reading for Labour’s top brass. Among those predicted to lose their seats to Reform’s surge are:
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves
- Deputy PM Angela Rayner
- Home Secretary Yvette Cooper
- Health Secretary Wes Streeting
- Ed Miliband
- Pat McFadden
- Jonathan Reynolds
- Liz Kendall
- John Healey
- Heidi Alexander
- Hilary Benn
- Bridget Phillipson
- Lisa Nandy
- Lucy Powell
The loss of Streeting would be particularly embarrassing for Labour, given he’s widely touted as a future party leader.
‘Unprecedented in 100 Years’
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, didn’t mince words about the seismic nature of the findings.
“This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon,” he said.
“The ‘big two’ established parties now only command the support of 41% of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.”
He added that Labour could still beat Reform if they managed to win back “disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens” – but warned: “As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front.
Economic Woes Driving Voter Rebellion
The poll reveals voters are abandoning the traditional parties in droves over economic concerns, with 54% citing the cost of living as their main voting priority, followed by the NHS (46%) and immigration (38%).
Among Reform voters specifically, immigration becomes even more dominant, with a whopping 83% saying it’s their biggest concern.
Labour’s economic management has already forced major U-turns, including the humiliating climbdown over winter fuel payments for pensioners. Now Chancellor Reeves faces claims she’ll have to hike taxes again in the autumn Budget just to balance the books.
Left and Right Desert Labour
Perhaps most damaging for Sir Keir Starmer is that his party is hemorrhaging support from both wings. While right-leaning voters defect to Reform over immigration and economic concerns, left-wingers are furious about planned cuts to disability benefits and foreign aid.
The PM is already staring down the barrel of a massive Commons rebellion, with nearly 130 MPs signing an amendment to kill off his flagship benefits reforms. One minister has already quit in protest, with others thought ready to walk.
Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham joined the chorus of criticism last night, warning of “genuine, deep anxiety” about the proposals.
Reform’s Momentum Builds
The poll confirms Reform’s extraordinary momentum since Farage returned as leader. Recent data shows they’re holding onto 95% of their 2024 voters, while Labour and the Conservatives are retaining barely half.
Most devastatingly for the Tories, more than one in three Conservative voters (37%) have already switched to Reform since the last election.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR who commissioned the poll, called it a “watershed moment for British politics.
“Reform UK’s projected majority shows that deep disillusionment with both major parties is turning into a wholesale rejection of the old political order,” he said.
Questions Over Reform’s Economics
But even as the polls point to a Reform government, serious questions remain about the party’s economic credibility.
This week’s unveiling of the ‘Britannia Card’ – reinstating non-dom tax status for a £250,000 fee – has been savaged by experts. The Institute for Fiscal Studies warned it had “serious problems,” while Tax Policy Associates claimed it could cost the UK up to £34 billion.
Dan Neidle warned that highly skilled professionals wouldn’t be able to afford the quarter-million pound fee, potentially driving talent away from Britain.
The Death of Two-Party Politics?
If these numbers held at a general election, it would represent the final nail in the coffin of Britain’s two-party system.
The Conservatives, reduced to just 29 seats, would cease to be a national party. They’d have fewer MPs than the SNP (26) and be fighting for relevance as the fourth party in Parliament.
Labour’s collapse from 412 to 118 seats would be the most dramatic reversal of fortune in British political history – worse even than their 1931 wipeout.
Coalition Arithmetic
While Reform’s 377 seats would give them a comfortable 104-seat majority, the poll also explored coalition scenarios.
The most likely alternative to a Reform majority government would be a Reform-Conservative coalition – though with the Tories reduced to minor party status, they’d have little bargaining power.
An anti-Reform “rainbow coalition” of Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats is theoretically possible but would require unprecedented cooperation between bitter rivals.
Four Years to Turn It Around
With the next election not due until 2029, both Labour and the Conservatives have time to recover. But the scale of Reform’s surge suggests something fundamental has shifted in British politics.
Voters want someone to deliver on their economic concerns, but they also want to feel heard on issues including immigration, crime, and political trust,” Craig observed.
“Reform is cutting through at the convergences of economic insecurity and cultural discontent, and if Labour or the Conservatives are unable to bridge that divide, we are heading for one of the most dramatic elections in British history.
As Westminster digests these extraordinary numbers, one thing is clear: Nigel Farage’s long march from the fringes to the centre of British politics may be approaching its destination – Number 10 Downing Street.
