Nigel Farage could become Britain’s next prime minister with Reform UK winning 311 seats if an election were held tomorrow, according to a groundbreaking YouGov MRP poll that exposes the catastrophic collapse of both major parties barely a year after Labour’s landslide victory.
The projection, based on interviews with 13,000 voters over the past three weeks, would see Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party plummet from 411 seats to just 144 – their worst result since 1931 – whilst the Conservatives would be reduced to a rump of 45 MPs, marking their lowest tally in the party’s 350-year history. The poll suggests Reform UK would fall just 15 seats short of an outright majority, but once the Speaker and absent Sinn Féin MPs are accounted for, Mr Farage would almost certainly command enough support to form a government.
Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics, confirmed the seismic nature of the findings: “Their seat total in a hypothetical election would almost certainly be enough to see them take the reins of government.” The projection represents the biggest single election gain in British parliamentary history, with Reform UK surging from their current five MPs to 311.
Labour’s Electoral Catastrophe
The scale of Labour’s projected collapse is unprecedented for a governing party just over a year into its term. High-profile casualties would include Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy – representing a decimation of Starmer’s cabinet.
Such a defeat for Labour would be an even greater loss of seats than the Conservatives experienced at the last general election,” English noted, adding that this represents “a sharp turnaround from a majority victory that was expected by some to carry the party through at least two terms in office.
Three-quarters of Reform UK’s projected gains would come directly from Labour, with 231 seats switching from red to turquoise. The North East of England would become Reform’s strongest region, winning 21 of 27 seats, followed by the East Midlands and Wales. London would remain Labour’s sole stronghold, with more than a third of their remaining seats concentrated in the capital.
Conservative Party Faces Extinction
The projection spells potential extinction for Britain’s oldest political party. The Conservatives would win just 45 seats, down from their already historically poor 121 in 2024, pushing them into fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats for the first time in their modern history. They would be completely wiped out in Wales and the South West – a Conservative heartland as recently as 2015 – and left with just six seats in the North and one in Scotland.
Party leader Kemi Badenoch would likely survive, but prominent figures including Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly, and Mel Stride could lose their seats. Almost 60 per cent of the current Conservative front bench would be swept away. The party’s maximum potential seats, even accounting for margin of error, would be just 68 – still placing them behind the Liberal Democrats’ minimum projection of 65 seats.
We would expect the Conservatives – the current official opposition – to win only 68 seats at the very maximum,” English explained, highlighting the party’s complete marginalisation in British politics.
Reform UK’s Momentum Builds
The poll follows Reform UK’s stunning performance in May’s local elections, where they won 677 council seats and took control of ten councils, including the former Labour stronghold of Durham. The party also secured two regional mayoralties and achieved a projected national vote share of 30 per cent – the first time since records began that neither Labour nor the Conservatives topped local election results.
YouGov’s central projection shows Reform UK would win 91 per cent of simulations as the largest party in a hung parliament, with an 8 per cent chance of securing an outright majority. The poll indicates national vote shares of 27 per cent for Reform UK, 21 per cent for Labour, 17 per cent for the Conservatives, 15 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, and 11 per cent for the Greens.
Reform’s weakest areas would be London, where they would win just six of 75 seats, and Scotland, where they would secure five of 57. However, they would dominate in traditional Labour heartlands, particularly across the North of England and Wales, where they would win 23 of 32 seats.
Starmer’s Spectacular Fall from Grace
The projection comes as Starmer’s personal ratings have plummeted to historic lows. Recent YouGov polling showed his net favourability rating at minus 50, with 71 per cent of Britons holding an unfavourable opinion of the Prime Minister – his worst score to date. Even among Labour voters, opinion is now split, with 50 per cent viewing him unfavourably.
Labour’s approval ratings have collapsed amid a series of unpopular decisions, including cuts to winter fuel payments for pensioners, early release of prisoners, and tax rises on businesses. The government’s net approval rating stands at minus 51, comparable to the Conservative government’s ratings before their electoral wipeout in 2024.
A senior Labour source, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted: “Almost half of Labour voters said they expected us to do well but have been disappointed. The winter fuel payment cuts have been absolutely toxic on the doorstep.”
Scotland and Wales Signal Further Trouble
In Scotland, the SNP would surge back to 37 seats from their current nine, with Labour reduced to just nine Scottish MPs. This resurgence suggests Labour faces severe difficulties at next year’s Scottish Parliament elections. In Wales, Reform UK’s dominance – winning 23 of 32 seats – indicates Labour could lose control of the Welsh Senedd for the first time when elections are held next May.
The Liberal Democrats would emerge as the third-largest party with 78 seats, consolidating their position as a significant force in British politics. The Greens would increase to seven seats, whilst Plaid Cymru would secure six.
Constitutional Crisis Looming
In theory, a grand coalition of all other parties could attempt to block a Farage premiership, but political analysts describe such a scenario as “highly unlikely in practice.” If the Conservatives abstained, Mr Farage would still have sufficient MPs to become Prime Minister, creating what constitutional experts are calling an unprecedented situation in British politics.
Professor John Curtice, Britain’s leading elections expert, warned: “Conservative and Labour MPs can no longer presume that Britain’s electoral system will ensure their continued dominance of the Commons. Reform has breached the barrier hitherto presented by first-past-the-post.”
Volatility and Uncertainty
The MRP projection comes with significant margins of error, with Reform UK’s seat tally potentially ranging from 271 to 342. However, even at the lower end, they would remain the largest party. YouGov notes that 82 of Reform UK’s projected seats would be won by less than five percentage points, highlighting the volatility of current British politics.
Constituencies are being won on an average of just 35 per cent of the vote with average majorities of 10 percentage points – compared to over 50 per cent vote shares and 26-point majorities in 2019. The projection shows 143 constituencies where the winner would secure less than 30 per cent of the vote, with Reform UK projected to win Aylesbury on just 24 per cent.
Bill Blain, strategist at Wind Shift Capital, attributed the dramatic shift partly to personality politics: “Starmer is dull, boring and precise. He is competent, but he is not a personality and lacks political charisma. Farage has it in spades.”
The next general election is not due until 2029, giving Labour time to recover. However, with local elections and devolved parliament elections scheduled for next year, the pressure on Starmer’s leadership is intensifying. Several Labour backbenchers are already calling for a change of direction, with one telling reporters: “We need to fundamentally reassess our approach or we’re heading for the biggest electoral disaster in British political history.”
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Image Credit:
Nigel Farage — photo by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0
