On the eve of Germany’s federal election, final polls predict a significant surge for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, signaling a potential political upheaval. With voters set to cast their ballots on February 23, 2025, the latest projections suggest that the AfD could secure around 20% of the vote, nearly doubling its support since the 2021 elections. This rise positions the AfD as the second-largest party, behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
The predicted gains for the AfD reflect growing voter dissatisfaction with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, particularly over economic challenges and immigration policies. As Germany faces issues of economic stagnation, energy security, and social integration, the election outcome will not only shape domestic policies but also influence Germany’s role within the European Union and its stance on global issues such as climate change and international stability.
Final Poll Results: AfD’s Meteoric Rise
According to the latest polling data:
- CDU/CSU: Leading with approximately 30% of the vote.
- AfD: Projected to secure around 20%, positioning it as the second-largest party.
- Social Democratic Party (SPD): Expected to fall to 15%, reflecting a significant decline in popularity.
- Greens: Projected to receive about 13% of the vote, maintaining a solid base but falling short of previous highs.
These figures highlight a dramatic shift in Germany’s political landscape, with the AfD’s rising popularity posing a significant challenge to the traditional parties. If the projections hold true, the AfD will nearly double its vote share compared to the 2021 federal election, where it received just over 10%.
The surge in support for the AfD is attributed to growing voter dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition’s handling of economic issues, particularly rising energy prices, inflation, and immigration policies. Many voters are turning to the AfD as a protest vote against the status quo, reflecting widespread discontent with the political establishment.
Why Is the AfD Gaining Popularity?
The AfD’s rising popularity can be linked to several key factors:
- Economic Concerns: Germany is grappling with economic stagnation, high energy costs, and inflation, leading to financial pressures on households. The AfD has capitalized on these concerns by criticizing the ruling coalition’s economic policies and promising to prioritize domestic industries and lower energy prices.
- Immigration and Security: The AfD’s hardline stance on immigration and border control resonates with voters concerned about social integration and security. The party has campaigned on a platform of stricter immigration policies, including calls for tighter border controls and reduced asylum applications.
- Anti-Establishment Sentiment: Disillusionment with the political establishment has driven support for the AfD as a protest vote. Many voters feel that traditional parties are out of touch with their needs, leading them to seek alternatives outside the political mainstream.
- National Identity and Sovereignty: The AfD’s emphasis on German identity, national sovereignty, and skepticism toward the European Union appeals to nationalist sentiments among certain voter demographics.
Despite its growing popularity, the AfD remains a highly controversial party. Its far-right stance on issues such as immigration and national identity has led to accusations of xenophobia and populism, resulting in other major parties ruling out coalition partnerships with it.
Impact on Major Parties: CDU/CSU and SPD
The AfD’s projected gains are poised to significantly impact Germany’s political dynamics, particularly for the CDU/CSU and the SPD:
- CDU/CSU: Led by Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU alliance is projected to maintain its position as the largest party with about 30% of the vote. However, the AfD’s surge threatens the CDU/CSU’s traditional dominance on the political right. Merz has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, but the growing popularity of the far-right party may force the CDU/CSU to recalibrate its policy positions to retain conservative voters.
- SPD: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD is facing a significant decline, with polls predicting just 15% of the vote—its worst performance in decades. This decline reflects public dissatisfaction with Scholz’s coalition government, particularly over economic issues and immigration policies. The SPD’s poor showing is likely to spark internal debates about leadership and strategic direction, potentially leading to a reshuffling of the party’s leadership.
The decline of the SPD and the rise of the AfD illustrate a broader shift in German politics, with voters gravitating toward more polarized positions on both the left and right.
Coalition Scenarios and Political Implications
If the election results align with the final poll projections, forming a government will require complex coalition negotiations. Given that all major parties have ruled out cooperating with the AfD, a three-party coalition is likely:
- CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens: This coalition would represent a centrist alignment aimed at maintaining stability and addressing pressing issues such as economic stagnation, energy policy, and immigration. However, ideological differences between the parties, particularly on climate policy and fiscal spending, could complicate negotiations.
- CDU/CSU, Greens, and Free Democratic Party (FDP): This so-called “Jamaica coalition” is another possibility, offering a more conservative approach to economic policy while maintaining progressive environmental commitments. This coalition would likely focus on fiscal conservatism, economic growth, and digitalization.
- SPD, Greens, and FDP: Although less likely given the SPD’s projected decline, this coalition would represent a continuation of the current “traffic light” alliance, emphasizing social welfare, environmental sustainability, and digital innovation.
The complexity of these coalition scenarios underscores the fragmented nature of German politics and the challenges of achieving stable governance in a multiparty system.
Public Reaction and International Implications
The AfD’s surge has sparked significant public debate and demonstrations:
- Public Protests: Approximately one million Germans have protested against the AfD in recent weeks, emphasizing its perceived incompatibility with democratic values and fears of rising nationalism.
- International Reactions: The rise of the AfD has attracted international attention, with figures like U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance controversially expressing support for the party and urging its inclusion in Germany’s government. This has raised concerns about the influence of far-right populism on international alliances and European stability.
Germany’s election results will not only shape domestic policies but also impact its leadership role within the European Union. Key issues such as climate change, energy security, economic stability, and immigration policy are at stake, influencing Germany’s international standing and geopolitical strategies.
Conclusion
As Germany prepares to vote, the final polls predicting large gains for the AfD reflect a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. The rise of the far-right party underscores growing voter dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition’s policies, particularly on economic and immigration issues.
The election’s outcome will determine Germany’s future direction, influencing not only domestic governance but also its role within the European Union and its stance on global challenges. With complex coalition negotiations anticipated, the path to stable governance remains uncertain, highlighting the evolving dynamics of German politics.
FAQs
- Why is the AfD gaining popularity in Germany?
- The AfD is gaining popularity due to growing voter dissatisfaction with economic issues, immigration policies, and anti-establishment sentiment.
- What are the projected results for the German federal election?
- The CDU/CSU is expected to lead with 30%, the AfD is projected at 20%, the SPD at 15%, and the Greens at 13%.
- Will the AfD be part of the next German government?
- No major party has agreed to form a coalition with the AfD due to its controversial far-right policies.
- What are the possible coalition scenarios?
- Potential coalitions include CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens, CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP, or SPD-Greens-FDP.
- What international implications could this election have?
- The election outcome will influence Germany’s leadership in the EU and its stance on global issues like climate change and economic stability.
