Another former Conservative MP has defected to Reform UK, as Maria Caulfield revealed she joined Nigel Farage’s party a month ago whilst new polling shows Reform stretching their lead over Labour to nine percentage points.
The former health minister, who now works as a full-time NHS nurse after losing her Lewes seat in last year’s election, told GB News that “Conservative right-minded” people should recognise “the future is Reform.” Her announcement came just hours after Danny Kruger became the first sitting Tory MP to cross the floor to Farage’s insurgent party.
“The same people who thought that Brexit would not happen think that Reform will not happen,” Caulfield declared in her first interview since switching allegiance. “They are in for a shock. The country is going to change a lot.”
Reform Surges to 29 Per Cent in Latest Poll
The defections coincide with Reform UK reaching their highest polling figures to date, with the latest YouGov survey showing them on 29 per cent support, up two points from the previous week. Labour has slumped to just 20 per cent, down two points, marking their joint-lowest figure this year according to the pollster.
The Conservatives remain static on 17 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent, whilst the Greens dropped two points to 10 per cent. The nine-point gap between Reform and Labour represents the largest lead Farage’s party has achieved since they began topping national polls earlier this year.
Arron Banks, the businessman who bankrolled the Leave.EU campaign and stood for Reform in May’s local elections, suggested the defections could spread beyond the Tories. I’m much more interested to learn which major trade union and Labour MPs in the red wall will jump to Reform,” he posted on X. “It’s coming…”
Kruger Declares Conservative Party “Over”
Danny Kruger’s defection on Monday sent shockwaves through Westminster as the East Wiltshire MP, who served as Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary in Kemi Badenoch’s frontbench team, declared his former party “over as a national party, over as the principal opposition to the Left.”
Speaking at a Mayfair press conference alongside Farage, Kruger described his decision as “personally painful” but insisted “the failure of the Conservative Party has created space for an alternative.” The former political secretary to Boris Johnson will now head Reform’s new unit preparing the party for government.
“We have had a year of stasis and drift and the sham unity that comes from not doing anything bold or difficult or controversial,” Kruger said of the Tories. “Those voters aren’t coming back, and every day, more and more people are joining them in deserting the party that has failed.”
Farage hinted that more defections are imminent, stating there “will be more colleagues” joining from the Conservative benches. The Reform leader tasked Kruger with leading preparations for government, signalling the party’s confidence about their electoral prospects.
Starmer’s Approval Ratings Hit Record Low
The defections come as Sir Keir Starmer faces his worst approval ratings since becoming Prime Minister. A separate More In Common poll revealed only 17 per cent of Britons believe the Labour leader is doing a good job, whilst 63 per cent say he is performing badly.
This gives Starmer a net approval rating of minus 46, considerably worse than Tory leader Kemi Badenoch at minus 23, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey at minus 10, and Farage at minus 7. The Prime Minister’s woes have been compounded by a torrid fortnight that saw Deputy PM Angela Rayner resign over a tax row and Lord Mandelson sacked as ambassador to the US over his Jeffrey Epstein links.
Paul Ovenden, one of Starmer’s senior aides, quit Downing Street on Monday after derogatory sexual remarks he made about senior MP Diane Abbott in 2017 came to light. The cascade of crises has overshadowed the PM’s attempts to launch “Phase Two” of his premiership.
Badenoch Admits “Rough and Bumpy Time”
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch acknowledged on Tuesday that her party is enduring a “rough and bumpy time” following the defections, but insisted she wouldn’t be distracted by MPs “jumping to the party that’s doing well in the polls.
“It’s quite clear that we lost a historic defeat last year. It’s going to take time for us to win back the public trust,” Badenoch said. “We saw that happen last year with Tory MPs jumping to the Labour Party because they were doing well in the polls. I’m not going to be distracted by any of that.”
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride defended the party’s position, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that Kruger was “profoundly wrong” to declare the Conservatives finished. “We don’t have an election now for another four years,” Stride argued, adding the party was holding the government “ruthlessly” to account.
Growing List of Conservative Defectors
Caulfield becomes the thirteenth former Conservative MP to join Reform UK, following a string of high-profile defections including former culture secretary Nadine Dorries, who declared “the Tory party is dead” at Reform’s Birmingham conference earlier this month.
The list of defectors includes Dame Andrea Jenkyns, now Reform’s mayoral candidate for Greater Lincolnshire, former party chair Sir Jake Berry, and MPs Adam Holloway, Marco Longhi, Ross Thomson, David Jones, and Lee Anderson. Each defection has chipped away at Conservative morale whilst bolstering Reform’s claim to represent authentic conservatism.
Caulfield, who served as health minister under both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak from 2022 to 2024, revealed her husband Steve Bell, former leader of the Conservative Group in Brighton & Hove, had joined Reform “a few months ago” whilst she followed suit a month ago, only announcing it publicly today.
Reform’s Electoral Momentum Builds
At Reform’s conference this month, Farage promised more ex-Tory ministers would follow Dorries’s lead, urging Conservative members to “do the right thing” and switch allegiance. The party has capitalised on voter frustration over immigration, crime, and economic stagnation to build unprecedented support.
YouGov polling conducted between September 14-15 surveyed 2,384 adults across Britain, showing Reform maintaining their position as the most popular party for the fourth consecutive month. This achievement marks the first time any party outside Labour and the Conservatives has led national polls for such an extended period in modern British political history.
The surge has prompted speculation about potential electoral pacts, with Conservative mayor of Tees Valley Lord Houchen suggesting his party might need to form a coalition with Reform to keep Labour from power. However, Badenoch has firmly ruled out any national alliance with Farage’s party.
Labour Scrambles to Respond
Labour strategists are reportedly alarmed by Reform’s momentum, particularly in traditional Red Wall seats where Farage’s anti-establishment message resonates strongly. A Labour spokesperson attempted to dismiss the defections, stating: “Every Conservative who defects to Reform ties Nigel Farage more closely to their record of failure.”
Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper observed that “Nigel Farage’s party is shapeshifting into the Conservatives in front of our very eyes,” adding that “the only difference between them is just a slightly lighter shade of blue.”
Critics have noted the irony of Reform accepting so many former Conservative MPs whilst claiming to fight the “failed uni-party” establishment. However, Farage appears unconcerned, focusing instead on building what he calls a “professional political force” capable of forming Britain’s next government.
As Westminster reels from the latest defection and Reform’s polling dominance solidifies, the question is no longer whether Farage’s party can disrupt British politics, but whether traditional parties can prevent a complete realignment of the political landscape before the next general election.
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Image Credit:
Official portrait of Maria Caulfield MP (cropped) — photo by David Woolfall / UK Parliament, CC BY 3.0
