France is facing the possibility of having its fifth prime minister in less than two years as MPs prepare to debate a vote of no confidence in François Bayrou on Monday afternoon, with the country’s economic crisis deepening and threatening to spark further civil unrest if parliamentary deadlock continues.
The 74-year-old political veteran, who has only held office since December, faces almost certain defeat after calling the high-stakes confidence vote last month to boost his legitimacy and push through his controversial £40 billion austerity package. Opposition parties from both the far-right and left have vowed to topple his minority government, deepening France’s political and economic malaise whilst raising questions about Emmanuel Macron’s presidential future.
Mr Bayrou’s drastic budget proposals, including cutting two of France’s annual public holidays and freezing welfare spending, have met considerable opposition and anger among the French public. The prime minister has warned that the EU’s second-largest economy faces a Greek-style debt crisis if urgent action isn’t taken to address the country’s spiralling financial situation.
Opposition Unite Against Austerity
The Socialist Party is expected to join forces with its natural enemies in Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally to oppose the prime minister, creating an unlikely alliance that virtually guarantees Bayrou’s defeat. Céline Thiebault-Martinez, a Socialist Party MP, condemned the budget, saying it “once again penalises the most vulnerable, working-class families and ordinary workers”.
Her party’s alternative budget would make half the savings Bayrou wants and would pay back the huge state debt over a longer period. Ms Thiebault-Martinez dismissed warnings about France’s economic peril: “They wave the IMF flag, saying we’ll soon be under supervision like Greece once was, but those are false arguments; they’re made to scare.”
Socialist leader Olivier Faure was even more blunt, telling Le Monde: “François Bayrou has decided to leave. In the current conditions in parliament, he knows he cannot get a vote of confidence from the opposition parties. The only thing I’m waiting for him to do now is to say goodbye.”
Dire Economic Warning Signs
The figures paint a stark picture that contradicts opposition optimism. France hasn’t balanced a budget since 1974, with its debt-to-GDP ratio now the third highest in Europe at 113 per cent, only behind Greece and Italy. The country spends more servicing its debt every year than it does on either defence or education, with debt growing by €12 million every hour according to Bayrou’s calculations.
The public deficit hit 5.8 per cent of GDP last year, nearly double the EU’s official limit of 3 per cent. France’s 10-year bond yield rose to around 3.52 per cent following Bayrou’s announcement, its highest since March, whilst the CAC-40 index plunged nearly 2 per cent as investors assessed the potential for fresh political instability.
Economy Minister Eric Lombard has vowed to “fight” to ensure the government wins the vote, warning: “Our responsibility is to reach an agreement because the country needs a budget.” Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau went further, cautioning that bringing down the government would risk a major financial crisis that “would first affect the most vulnerable.
Far-Right Capitalise on Chaos
National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s far-right party rising in national polls, favours holding fresh parliamentary elections, confident they will increase their share of MPs in the Assembly. They see Monday’s vote as a chance to punish Mr Macron whilst positioning themselves for greater power.
National Rally MP Gaetan Dussaussaye criticised the president’s economic management: “For eight years now [since Mr Macron was elected] it’s always been the same recipe: More rules, more taxes, preventing the French economy from working and moving forward.” However, the party remains vague about its alternative economic plan, with Dussaussaye merely stating: “What we want is a complete change in how the economy is managed in France. That means giving the power back to the French people to decide.”
Jordan Bardella, National Rally president, immediately declared after Bayrou’s announcement: “François Bayrou has just announced the end of his government, undermined by its complacent inaction. The RN will never vote in favour of a government whose choices cause suffering to the French people.”
Bayrou’s Desperate Gamble
During a dramatic press conference on 25 August, Bayrou shocked the political establishment by calling for the confidence vote, declaring the country faced “immediate danger” from its debt burden. “Our country is in danger because we are on the brink of over-indebtedness,” he warned. “This year, debt will be the largest item in the budget.”
The prime minister’s proposals include freezing welfare spending and tax brackets at 2025 levels without adjusting for inflation, measures that would save approximately €44 billion. He has also controversially suggested eliminating two public holidays, though he indicated this particular proposal could be modified.
Yes, it’s risky, but it’s even riskier not to do anything,” Bayrou admitted about his gamble, citing the cautionary tale of Britain’s Liz Truss, who was forced to resign after just 42 days due to pressure from financial markets.
Civil Unrest Looms
The confidence vote comes just two days before planned nationwide protests on 10 September, backed by leftist parties and numerous unions. The call for a general blockade under the banner “Bloquons tout” has drawn comparisons to the Yellow Vest protests that erupted in 2018 and spiralled into a broader movement against Macron’s economic reforms.
Various professional organisations have announced strike action, including energy workers on 2 September, taxi drivers on 5 September, railway unions on 10 September, and pharmacists on 18 September. The combination of political crisis and street protests threatens to plunge France into its deepest turmoil since the gilets jaunes movement.
Hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has gone further, suggesting Macron must resign if Bayrou loses the confidence vote. “Macron is chaos,” the France Unbowed party leader declared, threatening to propose a motion of no confidence against the president himself.
Macron’s Impossible Choices
Assuming Bayrou loses Monday’s vote and the government falls, he will stay in office temporarily whilst the president works out his next move. Macron will face only difficult choices: call new elections to try to re-establish a majority, appoint yet another new prime minister in the hope they can succeed where the previous four have failed, or even stand down himself.
The president has repeatedly ruled out resignation despite growing calls for him to go, with political observers suggesting his departure remains unlikely. “The least likely scenario is that Macron will resign. That’s not his style,” says Célia Belin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Paris. We’re in this moment of instability with Donald Trump and two wars [in Ukraine and Gaza]. We need stability.”
Constitutional rules mean new legislative elections cannot be called until July, having already held snap elections in June 2024 that resulted in a hopelessly divided parliament split almost evenly between a left-wing alliance, the National Rally, and a centre-right partnership.
Historic Political Paralysis
France’s political crisis has deepened since Macron’s gamble on snap elections last year, which he said would bring “clarity” but only resulted in greater fragmentation. Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, was toppled after just three months when trying to push through his budget plan, making him the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history.
If Bayrou falls, finding a replacement will prove even more challenging. “When Bayrou replaced Barnier, there weren’t that many candidates,” noted Paul Smith, head of Modern Languages at the University of Nottingham. “The big question now is, who would be able to find the middle way that would not immediately provoke the anger of Le Pen?”
Recent polls suggest 70 per cent of French people hope Bayrou will lose the confidence vote, whilst 84 per cent oppose his austerity programme. The political deadlock reflects broader European challenges, with France’s economic troubles threatening stability across the eurozone at a time of global uncertainty.
As Monday’s vote approaches, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin has warned that the legacy of Charles de Gaulle’s Fifth Republic is at stake: “General De Gaulle’s institutions are at stake if we fall back into the instability of the Fourth Republic, where governments came and went, where the authority of the state was not guaranteed.”
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Image Credit:
François Bayrou at a meeting in Marseille (IMG_4445) — photo by Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 France
