Germany delivered its strongest rebuke yet to Israel yesterday, with the foreign minister threatening unspecified “measures” and pledging to halt weapons exports used to break humanitarian law – marking a stunning reversal for Israel’s most steadfast European ally.
The dramatic shift in tone from Berlin, which has spent decades defending Israel as part of its post-Holocaust “special responsibility,” signals growing European impatience with the Gaza campaign that has left tens of thousands dead and triggered a humanitarian catastrophe.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s warning, backed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, represents perhaps the most significant diplomatic blow to Israel since October 7, given Germany’s historical role as Israel’s unconditional supporter in Europe.
We cannot stand by while international humanitarian law is systematically violated,” Baerbock told reporters in Berlin. “Germany will not export weapons that are used to break these laws. We are prepared to take concrete measures if necessary.”
The shift comes as the European Union reviews its entire Israel policy, with Britain, France and Canada also threatening “concrete actions” – suggesting a coordinated Western response that would have been unthinkable just months ago.
For Germany, the about-face is particularly momentous. Since the Holocaust, supporting Israel’s security has been considered a cornerstone of German foreign policy, with Angela Merkel famously declaring Israel’s security as Germany’s “raison d’état” – reason for existence.
“This is seismic,” said Dr Hannah Weber, a Middle East expert at the German Institute for International Affairs. Germany doesn’t just casually threaten Israel. For Berlin to use this language means something fundamental has shifted in how they view this conflict.
The timing appears linked to mounting evidence of civilian casualties in Gaza, where health officials report over 40,000 deaths, the majority women and children. Recent incidents, including strikes on schools and hospitals, seem to have pushed European patience past breaking point.
Chancellor Merz, who has historically been even more pro-Israel than his predecessors, appeared to endorse Baerbock’s stance. Germany’s friendship with Israel is unshakeable, but friendship also means being honest when lines are crossed,” he said.
The German shift reflects growing domestic pressure, with polls showing increasing public opposition to arms exports to Israel. Protests in Berlin, Munich and other cities have drawn hundreds of thousands demanding Germany stop enabling what activists call “genocide in Gaza.”
“Finally, our government is listening,” said protestor Maria Schmidt, 28, outside the Chancellery. We’ve been saying for months that you can’t claim to support human rights while sending weapons used to kill children.
Germany is Israel’s second-largest arms supplier after the United States, providing everything from submarine components to ammunition. Last year, German weapons exports to Israel topped €320 million, a tenfold increase from previous years.
Israeli officials appeared caught off-guard by the German statement. One diplomat, speaking anonymously, called it “deeply disappointing” and warned it would “only embolden Hamas and Iran.
Germany of all countries should understand that Israel faces an existential threat,” the diplomat said. This kind of pressure while we’re still fighting for our survival is a betrayal of everything Germany claims to stand for.
The shift also reflects changing dynamics within Europe. France’s Emmanuel Macron has grown increasingly critical of Israel’s conduct, while even traditionally supportive countries like the Netherlands and Austria are questioning their positions.
“There’s a domino effect happening,” explained Brussels-based analyst Jennifer Morton. Once Germany moves, it gives cover for smaller European nations to follow. Israel could find itself very isolated very quickly.”
The mention of “concrete measures” has sparked speculation about what actions might follow. Options could include formal arms embargoes, suspension of trade agreements, or even sanctions – though the latter would require unanimous EU approval.
For Germany’s substantial Jewish community, the shift creates profound unease. “We understand the humanitarian concerns, but Germany must not forget its special obligation,” said Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany.
The German weapons industry, which has lucrative contracts with Israel, is watching nervously. Rheinmetall and other major suppliers could face significant losses if exports are curtailed.
This isn’t just about morality – it’s about jobs and contracts worth billions,” one industry insider noted. But clearly the political wind has changed.
The Biden administration, struggling to maintain its own balancing act, will be alarmed by Germany’s shift. Washington has relied on European support to deflect criticism of its own weapons supplies to Israel.
Palestinian advocates welcomed the German statement while urging concrete follow-through. Words are not enough when children are dying daily,” said Dr Hanan Ashrawi. “We need immediate action – arms embargoes, sanctions, accountability.”
The German parliament is expected to debate the issue next week, with some MPs pushing for binding legislation on arms exports. The Green Party, Baerbock’s party, has long advocated for stricter conditions on weapons sales.
“We cannot be complicit in violations of international law,” Green MP Anton Hofreiter said. Our historical responsibility to Israel doesn’t mean giving them a blank cheque for war crimes.
For Israel, Germany’s shift represents more than just diplomatic pressure – it strikes at the heart of the narrative that European support stems from historical obligation rather than political calculation.
“When even Germany starts threatening you, you know you’ve lost the room,” one Israeli analyst admitted privately. “This is going to force some serious recalculation in Jerusalem.”
The European Union’s foreign policy chief confirmed that a comprehensive review of EU-Israel relations is underway, with results expected within weeks. This could affect everything from trade to scientific cooperation.
As Europe’s patience wears thin and Israel’s isolation deepens, the German shift may mark a turning point in Western attitudes toward the Gaza conflict. For a nation that has spent 80 years trying to atone for the Holocaust by supporting Israel unconditionally, threatening “concrete measures” represents a profound historical moment.
Whether Berlin follows through on its threats remains to be seen. But for Israel, the message is clear: even its most reliable friends have limits, and those limits may have finally been reached.
