London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan has admitted he fears a mass casualty incident could occur at this weekend’s Notting Hill Carnival, despite refusing to intervene and take direct control of the event that attracts two million people annually.
The Metropolitan Police have warned they are preparing for a potentially deadly crowd crush at Europe’s largest street festival, which celebrates Caribbean culture over the August bank holiday weekend. Despite new safety measures, police maintain “significant concerns” about the risk to public safety.
Khan acknowledged the carnival has become a “victim of its own success,” revealing in June that he was “frightened” by crowd density after seeing “images of some of the crowds at some parts of the day.”
Police Warning of Catastrophic Risk
Commander Charmain Brenyah, the Met’s spokesperson for the Carnival, emphasised that complacency could prove fatal. “The Met fully supported the event organisers’ decision to commission an independent review into crowd safety after the number of situations in recent years where crowd density has reached dangerous levels,” she said.
“It was welcome news that some additional funding was secured to allow the organisers to implement a number of the review’s recommendations. But they have had limited time to do so, meaning despite everyone’s best efforts, it’s inevitable not all the risks will have been mitigated.”
The warning comes as new figures show the 2024 carnival resulted in two deaths, eight stabbings, and 349 arrests, with 61 police officers assaulted during the two-day event.
Calls for Ticketing System
A new report has urged that the Carnival be ticketed to avoid a Hillsborough-style “catastrophic failure of public safety.” Conservative London Assembly member Susan Hall, who authored the report, said the event had only narrowly “avoided a mass crush on the scale of the Hillsborough disaster” in recent years.
Hall’s proposals include requiring all attendees to pre-register, with tickets “linked to an individual’s billing address” so police could “link potential crimes to individuals” and subsequently prosecute and ban offenders from future events.
Despite these warnings, Khan maintains he has no legal responsibility for the event, which is organised by Notting Hill Carnival Ltd and the Carnival Village Trust charity.
Enhanced Safety Measures
Matthew Phillip, chief executive of Notting Hill Carnival, insisted this year’s event is “better resourced than ever.” Extra funding has allowed deployment of more trained stewards and a “team of crowd experts.”
Ian Comfort, chair of the festival, outlined the improvements: “We’re strengthening every operational element of an already extensive, multi-agency event liaison team: more trained stewards, expanded CCTV coverage, better parade coordination, faster response systems and enhanced crowd management infrastructure.”
Additional technology includes large screens around the area to help direct crowds, whilst the Met will deploy live facial recognition technology for the first time at entry and exit points.
Soaring Costs and Crime Statistics
The carnival’s policing costs have skyrocketed, with the Met spending £11.8 million last year alone – representing deployment of 7,000 officers, one-fifth of the force’s total establishment. City Hall’s contribution has increased by 1,000 per cent since Khan took office in 2016, doubling to nearly £2 million this year.
Historical data reveals a persistent pattern of violence. Between 2017 and 2023, the Met recorded 47 stabbings at the carnival, averaging nine per year. Since 1987, eight people have died in carnival-related violence.
Last year saw 75 police officers injured, significantly higher than the 53 officers injured during the Southport riots. The 2024 event resulted in 61 assaults on police, including officers being kicked, punched, spat at, headbutted, and having bottles thrown at them.
Pre-emptive Arrests
The Met has already arrested 100 people before this weekend’s event begins, with 266 individuals currently on bail or probation licence conditions. Commander Brenyah issued a stark warning to potential troublemakers.
“The vast majority come to have fun and enjoy themselves, to celebrate Caribbean culture, to dance, to eat and to go home with nothing but good memories,” she said. “Regrettably, we know a minority come with less positive intentions, and in recent years this has played out in the form of serious violence, including three tragic incidents where lives have been taken.”
Crowd Density Crisis
Police revealed there were “100 spontaneous crowd incidents” at the 2024 carnival that caused alarm. At times, crowds were so dense that officers couldn’t reach areas where revellers were in danger.
Met Assistant Commissioner Matt Twist described horrifying scenes where people “were being hoisted up on to scaffolding at the side of the road to get out of what was a really dangerous level of crowd density.”
The area at the top of Ladbroke Grove has been identified as particularly concerning, with multiple near-misses in recent years.
Political Pressure Mounts
The controversy has exposed deep divisions over the carnival’s future. Critics argue the event receives preferential treatment compared to other large gatherings. In July, the Met enforced an exclusion zone for England football fans during the European Championship final, yet carnival continues despite repeated violence.
Susan Hall warned: “At a time when Londoners are facing cuts to essential and frontline policing services because of Sadiq Khan and this Labour Government, the Met simply cannot afford to spend over £80million policing carnival over the next five years.”
Some have suggested relocating the event to Hyde Park, implementing sponsorship deals, or moving it away from the bank holiday weekend to reduce overtime costs.
Organisers Defend Event
Carnival organisers maintain the event’s crime statistics are comparable to other major festivals when adjusted for attendance. They argue that unfair media coverage has perpetuated negative associations.
A Notting Hill Carnival Ltd spokesman said: “Many of the points raised in this report have been addressed and actioned by NHCL and its strategic partners. An independent review commissioned by NHCL earlier this year has led to numerous changes this year and beyond.”
Weekend Preparations
As two million people prepare to descend on west London this weekend, the stakes could not be higher. The Met has warned residents and visitors to plan their routes carefully and remain vigilant.
Despite enhanced safety measures, fundamental questions remain about whether narrow residential streets can safely accommodate such massive crowds. With warnings of a potential Hillsborough-style tragedy going unheeded for over two decades, this weekend’s carnival may prove a critical test.
The actions of the minority who attend with criminal intent stand “totally at odds with the values of those who care passionately about Carnival,” Commander Brenyah noted, acknowledging those who have condemned violence in the run-up to this weekend.
As preparations enter their final stages, all eyes will be on whether 2025 becomes another year of violence and near-misses, or marks a turning point in the carnival’s controversial history.
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Image Credit (Shortened):
Mayor Sadiq Khan at Trafalgar Square (6 June 2019) – by Ввласенко, licensed under CC BY‑SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
