Just 21% would vote Labour as Reform UK surges to first place and Tories overtake government party for first time since election
Labour has suffered a catastrophic polling collapse, falling to a record-low third place with just 21 per cent support – the party’s worst showing since the General Election.
The devastating new survey from pollsters More In Common reveals Keir Starmer’s party has been overtaken by both Reform UK in first place and the Conservatives in second.
The poll of 2,032 Britons conducted between June 13-16 shows a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the governing party just months after their landslide victory.
REFORM LEADS THE PACK
According to the latest data:
- Reform UK: 28% (first place)
- Conservatives: 22% (second place)
- Labour: 21% (third place)
The shocking result marks the first time Labour has fallen behind the Tories in a More In Common poll since the July 2024 general election.
‘NO BUDGET BOUNCE’
More In Common’s Luke Tryl revealed the grim news for Labour, stating: “For reference, the last time Labour’s vote share was this low was at the end of March – after the Spring Statement.
It seems Labour are not enjoying the traditional Budget bounce these events bring – though the dips seem to reverse quickly.
The pollster noted that after Labour’s previous low of 21% following the Spring Statement, they had recovered to 25% by May – offering a glimmer of hope for Starmer’s beleaguered party.
STARMER’S SLIDE
The collapse in support represents a stunning fall from grace for Labour, which won 412 seats with 33.7% of the vote at the July 2024 general election.
Recent polling has shown a consistent decline in Labour’s fortunes:
- YouGov recorded Labour’s net favourability at -46 in May, Starmer’s lowest ever
- Multiple polls show Reform UK either leading or in close second place
- Labour losing voters to both left and right parties
REFORM’S REMARKABLE RISE
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has emerged as the major beneficiary of Labour’s collapse, consistently polling in the mid-to-high 20s across multiple surveys.
The party’s surge has been attributed to:
- Rising concern over immigration (cited by half of voters as top issue)
- Dissatisfaction with Labour’s handling of the economy
- Farage’s increased popularity among former Labour voters
TORY RECOVERY
The Conservatives’ move into second place represents their first polling lead over Labour since their crushing defeat last July, when they won just 121 seats.
However, at 22%, the party remains well below its historical averages and faces continued competition from Reform UK for right-leaning voters.
FRAGMENTED LANDSCAPE
Recent MRP modelling suggests that if an election were held today:
- No party would win a majority
- Parliament would be highly fragmented
- Many seats would be won on less than 30% of the vote
- Labour could lose over 200 seats
WHAT’S DRIVING THE COLLAPSE?
Analysis of Labour defectors reveals multiple factors:
- 44% say Labour is “out of touch”
- 41% believe the party is “not Labour enough
- 32% cite dislike of Keir Starmer
- Immigration concerns driving voters to Reform/Tories
- Left-wing voters switching to Lib Dems and Greens
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
Labour’s 21% matches their previous post-election low from March, following criticism of the Spring Statement.
The result represents:
- Labour’s worst polling since taking office
- First time in third place in any major poll
- Dramatic reversal from 40%+ during election campaign
GOVERNMENT RESPONSE
Labour sources point out that governments typically face mid-term blues and note that the party recovered from its March low.
However, with Reform UK maintaining momentum and the Conservatives showing signs of recovery, Starmer faces mounting pressure to reverse his party’s fortunes.
THE ROAD AHEAD
With the next election not due until 2029, Labour has time to recover – but the scale of the collapse will alarm party strategists.
The More In Common data suggests British politics has entered an era of unprecedented volatility, with three parties competing for supremacy and no clear favourite emerging.
As one Labour insider admitted: “These numbers are absolutely dire. We need to reconnect with voters urgently or we’re heading for disaster.”
Have your say: Can Labour recover from this historic low?
Image credit: [Photographer Name Unknown] via Wikimedia Commons — Licensed under CC BY 3.0
