Labour MPs have voted to pass the second reading of the Sentencing Bill which would allow convicted rapists, paedophiles and other serious sexual offenders to be released from prison after serving just one third of their sentences, in what Conservative critics have branded a “shameful” betrayal of victims.
The Commons passed the legislation 340 to 76 on Monday night, paving the way for what opponents describe as a “profound and permanent change” to sentencing laws that would see those guilty of rape, paying children under 13 for sex, penetrating minors and creating indecent photographs of children potentially freed after serving as little as 33 per cent of their prison terms.
The controversial Bill, which implements recommendations from the Independent Sentencing Review led by former Conservative Justice Secretary David Gauke, also includes plans to expand chemical castration trials for more than 6,000 sex offenders across 20 prisons in northern England.
“Disgraceful” Vote Condemned by Opposition
Shadow Justice Minister Dr Kieran Mullan launched a scathing attack on the Government’s position, calling the vote “shameful” and accusing the Prime Minister of hypocrisy over his stated commitment to tackling violence against women and girls.
“The Prime Minister has again and again talked about his commitment to tackling violence against women and girls,” Dr Mullan stated. And we have all also been shocked as a nation by the grooming gangs scandal. But where have the warm words led us?”
He added: “They have led us to the Prime Minister instructing Labour MPs to vote to let rapists and paedophiles out of prison earlier. Not as some temporary measures to tackle prison overcrowding. But as a profound and permanent change to our sentencing laws.”
The Shadow Minister implored Labour MPs to reconsider their support, stating: “I implore them to not have their legacy be letting people that sexually assault children and that drag women into dark alleyways and rape them get out of prison earlier.”
New “Progression Model” for Prisoners
Under the proposed legislation, a new three-stage “progression model” would be introduced for standard determinate sentences, fundamentally restructuring how prisoners serve their time. The model comprises custody, intensive supervision, and a final licence stage where offenders remain monitored in the community.
The Bill sets a minimum release point of one third for those serving standard determinate sentences which currently have automatic release at 40 or 50 per cent. For those serving sentences with an automatic release point of 67 per cent, their earliest possible release would now be 50 per cent.
Crucially, release would not be automatic. Prisoners would only be eligible for early release if they obey prison rules and actively engage with rehabilitative programmes. Bad behaviour could see additional days added to their sentences, with the Bill doubling the maximum number of added days per incident that an independent adjudicator can impose.
Prison Crisis Drives Reform
The Government has justified the sweeping changes by pointing to an inherited prison system in crisis. Justice Secretary David Lammy told MPs that prisons were “on the brink of collapse” when Labour took office, with capacity dangerously close to being exceeded.
Current projections show that without reform, demand for prison places will outstrip supply by 9,500 by early 2028. As of 8 September 2025, the total prison population stands at 88,045, whilst the useable operational capacity is 89,720, leaving just 1,675 places available – less than 2 per cent of the estate’s operational capacity.
“We cannot simply build our way out of this crisis,” the Government stated in accompanying documentation. “Without significant reform, demand for places will outstrip supply by 9,500 in early 2028.”
Chemical Castration Expansion
The Bill also includes controversial provisions to expand chemical castration trials from four prisons in the southwest to 20 facilities across the northwest and northeast of England. More than 6,400 sex offenders would have access to medication designed to suppress sexual urges.
Justice Secretary David Lammy told the Commons that evidence from the southwest trial had been “positive,” stating: “Evidence shows this medication helps suppress urges, which is why we’re expanding access to it.”
The voluntary scheme involves two types of medication. Approximately 86 per cent of participating offenders take selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), pills which reduce compulsive sexual thoughts without affecting testosterone levels. The remainder receive hormonal drugs that lower testosterone levels, mimicking physical castration.
“This is part of our comprehensive approach to managing dangerous offenders and preventing reoffending,” Mr Lammy said. “Make no mistake, those who commit serious crimes will face the full force of the law. But alongside prison, we have a duty to use every method available to rehabilitate offenders and protect the public, as part of our plan for change.”
Victims’ Rights Concerns
The reforms have sparked fierce debate about their impact on victims and public safety. Critics argue that the changes prioritise managing prison capacity over protecting the public from dangerous offenders.
The Bill notably excludes extended determinate sentences (EDS) and life sentences from the early release provisions, meaning over 17,000 of the most dangerous prisoners would be unaffected. However, thousands serving standard determinate sentences for serious sexual and violent offences could benefit from the new release arrangements.
Former Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who commissioned the review, had previously indicated she was exploring whether chemical castration could be made mandatory for sex offenders, though the current expansion remains voluntary.
Intensive Community Supervision
For those released early under the new provisions, the Government has promised enhanced community supervision measures. The Bill would grant probation services new powers to impose restrictive licence conditions, including:
- Prohibition from driving
- Bans from attending public events, including sporting fixtures
- Exclusion from pubs, clubs and bars
- Drug testing for all offenders on licence
- Restriction zones limiting offenders’ movements to specific geographical areas
Thousands more offenders would be electronically tagged, with close management from probation services during the intensive supervision phase. The Government has committed £700 million annually for probation services to support the enhanced monitoring regime.
Political Fallout Expected
The vote represents a significant political gamble for Labour, with the reforms likely to become a major battleground issue. Conservative sources suggest the party will campaign heavily on the theme of Labour being “soft on crime” ahead of future elections.
Robert Jenrick, the Shadow Justice Secretary, has already warned that scrapping short sentences would effectively “decriminalise” offences like burglary, theft and assault. He dismissed electronic monitoring as being “as useful as smoke alarms putting out bonfires” in preventing reoffending.
The legislation must still pass through further parliamentary stages, including committee scrutiny and a third reading, before reaching the House of Lords. However, Labour’s substantial Commons majority makes its eventual passage likely.
Historical Context
The prison population in England and Wales has doubled over the past three decades to nearly 90,000, despite falling crime rates. This increase has been driven partly by longer sentences being handed down amid political and public pressure to be “tough on crime.”
The Independent Sentencing Review, which informed the Bill, noted that this approach has proved unsustainable, with the prison system operating at near-capacity for years. The review recommended fundamental reform to create a more sustainable model that balances punishment, rehabilitation and public protection.
As the Bill progresses through Parliament, the debate over balancing prison capacity, public safety and victims’ rights is set to intensify. Critics warn that early release for serious sexual offenders sends the wrong message about the gravity of their crimes, whilst supporters argue that the current system is unsustainable and reform is essential to prevent total collapse.
The coming months will reveal whether Labour can successfully navigate the political minefield of criminal justice reform whilst maintaining public confidence in the system’s ability to protect victims and punish serious offenders appropriately.
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Image Credit:
House of Commons debating Brexit deal – 19 October 2019 — photo by UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor & Stephen Pike, CC BY 3.0.
