More than 1,200 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats since the UK Prime Minister and French President signed a returns agreement on Thursday, with at least 300 attempting the illegal crossing this morning alone.
At 10am Saturday, a Border Force vessel arrived in Dover harbour carrying 68 people, whilst maritime security sources told GB News that almost 250 others remained in the Channel, with most either in or approaching UK waters. The latest arrivals bring the total number of crossings since the Anglo-French deal was signed to 1,226 in just three days.
The figures represent uncomfortable reading for Sir Keir Starmer, who hailed Thursday’s agreement with President Emmanuel Macron as an “historic deal” allowing for the partial return of small boat migrants arriving in the UK.
Limited Returns Expected
The British and French governments have not disclosed specific figures for how many migrants France will accept back under the new arrangement, though early indications suggest numbers will be modest. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper acknowledged the pilot scheme would begin small but expressed hope that returns could be increased if initial efforts prove successful.
Tony Smith, former Director General of UK Border Force, told GB News the deal would make “no difference” to Channel crossing numbers, dismissing the proposed figures as too modest to serve as an effective deterrent.
“I’ve got so many questions swirling around in my head about this, that my optimism, I’m afraid, has been severely dented,” Smith said. “Are we going to be able to put them on a Border Force vessel and sail them straight back into Calais? All of them straight away? Or what happens when the lawyers get involved when in our waters?”
Record-Breaking Year for Crossings
The continued arrivals compound what has already been a record-breaking year for Channel crossings. Home Office data shows that 21,117 people have crossed the English Channel in small boats as of 6 July 2025, marking a 56 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.
The surge represents the highest number of crossings recorded at this stage of any year since the crisis began in 2018. In the first six months of 2025 alone, nearly 20,000 people made the perilous journey – a 48 per cent increase year-on-year.
Weather conditions have been cited as a contributing factor, with the Met Office recording 190 “red days” – conditions favourable for crossings – in the 12 months to April 2025, an 80 per cent increase on previous years.
The ‘One In, One Out’ Agreement
Under the pilot scheme announced on Thursday, the UK will initially send approximately 50 migrants per week back to France, according to reports in Le Monde. In exchange, Britain will accept an equal number of asylum seekers from France who can demonstrate family connections to the UK.
The arrangement, which Sir Keir Starmer described as “groundbreaking”, will see migrants arriving via small boats detained and returned to France “in short order. However, the scheme explicitly excludes anyone who has previously attempted illegal entry to the UK.
French officials have previously resisted such agreements, maintaining that the UK should negotiate returns arrangements with the entire European Union rather than individual member states. Five EU countries – understood to include Spain, Malta, Italy, Greece and Cyprus – objected to the deal in a letter to the European Commission, expressing concerns that migrants could simply be moved on from France to their territories.
Enforcement Challenges
The practical implementation of the returns agreement faces significant hurdles. Smith questioned the logistics of the operation, asking whether migrants would be returned immediately whilst still at sea or brought ashore first, potentially triggering legal challenges.
“I am a little bit worried that we might be actually making things worse than better, but I just hope I’m wrong,” the former Border Force chief warned, expressing concern about what benefits France would receive from accepting the arrangement.
The new agreement builds on existing cooperation between the UK and France, which includes a three-year deal signed in March 2023 worth €541 million. Under current arrangements, French authorities have agreed to allow police officers to enter shallow waters to attempt to stop boats from leaving French beaches – a significant policy shift from previous restrictions.
Political Pressure Mounts
The continuing high numbers of crossings have intensified political pressure on the Labour government, which made tackling the issue a key election pledge. Sir Keir Starmer has repeatedly promised to “smash the gangs” responsible for people smuggling operations.
“The people smuggling gangs do not care if the vulnerable people they exploit live or die, as long as they pay and we will stop at nothing to dismantle their business models and bring them to justice,” a Home Office spokesman said.
The government’s Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, currently progressing through Parliament, aims to grant counter-terrorism style powers to police and introduce new criminal offences targeting smuggling gangs. The legislation forms part of what officials describe as a “serious plan” to strengthen border security through international intelligence sharing and enhanced enforcement operations.
Broader Context
The Channel crossing crisis has escalated dramatically since 2018, when significant numbers first began attempting the journey. In 2024, approximately 37,000 people were detected crossing the Channel in small boats – the second-highest annual figure on record after 2022’s peak of 46,000.
The human cost has been severe, with 73 confirmed deaths in 2024 alone – a record number and five times higher than the previous year. The increased fatality rate has been attributed partly to overcrowded boats, with average occupancy rising from 13 people in 2020 to 53 in 2024.
Philippe Leclerc, UNHCR director of the regional bureau for Europe, cautiously welcomed the UK-France agreement, stating: “If appropriately implemented, it could help achieve a more managed and shared approach, offering alternatives to dangerous journeys, whilst upholding access to asylum.
As weather conditions improve and summer approaches – traditionally the busiest period for crossings – both governments face mounting pressure to demonstrate that their new agreement can deliver meaningful results in stemming the flow of migrants across one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
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Image Credit:
Ukraine conference in Paris (2025) – Image by Présidence de la République française, licensed under CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
