Poland has issued a chilling warning that it could be forced to shoot down Vladimir Putin’s aircraft if it crosses Polish airspace on its way to crunch talks with Donald Trump in Hungary.
Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski declared Poland “cannot guarantee” the Russian president’s safety if he dares fly over Polish territory, citing the International Criminal Court arrest warrant hanging over Putin’s head.
The explosive threat came as plans for the Trump-Putin summit hit fresh turbulence, with a crucial preparatory meeting between top American and Russian diplomats abruptly cancelled amid “widely differing expectations” over ending the Ukraine war.
“Cannot Guarantee Safety” Over Poland
Sikorski delivered his stark warning whilst speaking to Polish broadcaster Radio Rodzina, making clear that Putin would be taking enormous risks by flying through Polish airspace.
“I cannot guarantee that an independent Polish court won’t order the government to escort such an aircraft down to hand the suspect to the court in The Hague,” Sikorski stated.
The foreign minister’s language was carefully chosen – framing any potential action as compliance with international law rather than an act of aggression.
His threat carries weight given Poland is both a NATO member and a signatory to the ICC treaty, meaning Warsaw has legal obligations to arrest individuals wanted by the court.
ICC Warrant Complicates Putin’s Travel
The Russian president faces an ICC arrest warrant over charges of illegally deporting hundreds of Ukrainian children from occupied territories during the invasion.
This warrant obliges all 123 ICC member states to arrest Putin on sight if he enters their jurisdiction – and legal experts debate whether that extends to aircraft flying through their airspace.
All EU countries are ICC signatories, creating a legal minefield for any Putin journey across Europe.
Only Hungary – under pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – is in the process of withdrawing from the ICC, though that withdrawal hasn’t been finalised.
Rubio-Lavrov Meeting Mysteriously Cancelled
Plans for the Trump-Putin summit suffered a major blow when a key preparatory meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was abruptly cancelled.
The two diplomats had been scheduled to meet to hammer out a roadmap for peace negotiations, but the talks were mysteriously axed with no clear explanation.
A White House official confirmed to NBC there were “no plans” for Trump and Putin to meet in the “immediate future,” sparking fears of complete breakdown in communications.
“Widely Differing Expectations”
One insider revealed that Rubio and Lavrov had “widely differing expectations” over how to end the Ukraine war, leaving the American side doubting whether any Trump-Putin summit could succeed.
The source added that Rubio is now “unlikely to recommend his president even attends a meeting with Putin” given the gulf between the two sides’ positions.
This represents a significant setback for Trump, who promised during his campaign to end the Ukraine war “in 24 hours” and has staked considerable political capital on brokering a deal.
Gruelling 2,000-Mile Detour Required
Even if the summit proceeds, Putin faces a logistical nightmare reaching Budapest without crossing hostile airspace.
Experts calculate the detour could stretch to nearly 2,000 miles, effectively doubling normal flight time from Moscow to Hungary.
The most likely route would snake from Russia through Turkey, then Greece, across North Macedonia and Serbia before finally landing in Budapest.
An alternative path would go over Montenegro and Serbia from the Adriatic Sea, but either way the journey would be long, tense and politically fraught.
“Will Make Him Look Stupid”
Former UK Defence Attaché to Moscow John Foreman CBE told The Sun: “The US will put enormous pressure on smaller, Orthodox, NATO countries in the Balkans to allow Putin through under diplomatic flight clearance.
Security expert Anthony Glees said Putin’s convoluted path to Hungary would be “very circuitous – and make him look stupid.”
“It’s very humiliating for President Putin, and indeed humiliating for Hungary,” Glees added. “They appear to have been told by Trump that that’s where the meeting has to take place.”
He even suggested Putin might consider a secret “sealed train” journey from Moscow to Budapest to dodge the ICC’s reach entirely.
Putin May Relish the Provocation
Despite the ridiculous logistics, some experts believe Putin may actually enjoy the spectacle.
“Putin will love spitting in their eye,” Foreman said. “It will enrage some countries in NATO and the EU – but that’s the point of picking Hungary and Orban.”
The Russian president has long demonstrated willingness to accept personal inconvenience if it allows him to thumb his nose at Western institutions.
Orban: “Only Place in Europe”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has consistently sided with Moscow throughout the Ukraine war, proudly declared last week: “Hungary is the only place in Europe today where such a meeting could be held.”
Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto vowed Budapest would “ensure that Putin can enter Hungary, has successful negotiations here, and then returns home.”
Orban has repeatedly blocked EU sanctions against Russia, vetoed Ukraine’s EU membership bid, and even announced plans to withdraw Hungary from the ICC altogether.
Hungary Still Bound by ICC
However, Hungary remains technically bound by the ICC until its withdrawal is finalised next year, meaning Budapest still has legal obligations to arrest Putin.
This creates a bizarre situation where Hungary is promising safe passage to someone it’s legally required to detain.
Adding to the complexity, every single one of Hungary’s seven neighbours is an ICC member, and all but two are NATO allies.
Austria and Serbia Only Safe Zones
That leaves Austria and Serbia as Putin’s only possible safe transit zones amongst Hungary’s neighbours.
Even these routes carry risks, as NATO aircraft could theoretically intercept Putin’s plane and force it to land in a country that would arrest him.
However, experts believe NATO won’t actually shoot down the aircraft despite the legal tensions.
EU Airspace Ban Since 2022
The EU banned all Russian aircraft from entering its airspace after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Each EU state would need to individually lift that ban for Putin to fly through their territory – a decision that would cause outrage across the bloc.
Bulgaria has hinted it may be willing to bend the rules, with Foreign Minister Georg Georgiev saying: “If the condition for this is to have a meeting, it is most logical for such a meeting to be mediated in every possible way.”
Bulgaria’s foreign ministry later clarified it had not received any official air travel request from Russia.
Trump Insists Summit Will Proceed
Despite the mounting obstacles, Trump insists the talks will go ahead “in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this ‘inglorious’ war to an end.”
However, no date has been confirmed and the Kremlin is playing coy about timing.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Serious preparation is required. You have heard statements from both the American side and ours that this could take some time.”
Violence Escalates Since Alaska Meeting
Meanwhile, Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine have intensified since Trump and Putin’s last face-to-face meeting in Alaska two months ago.
Sources said that summit produced little substantive progress beyond “jovial hours in each other’s company,” raising questions about whether another meeting would yield better results.
The continuing violence undermines Trump’s claims that he can quickly broker peace through personal diplomacy with Putin.
Trump’s Toughest Diplomatic Test
As the logistics grow more complicated and diplomatic preparations falter, Trump faces his toughest foreign policy challenge yet.
He must somehow coax Putin to the negotiating table whilst keeping European allies onside – allies who are outraged at the prospect of legitimising the Russian president through a high-profile summit.
Poland’s threat to force down Putin’s plane crystallises the difficult position Trump has created for himself by promising quick resolution to a conflict that has no easy answers.
As preparations continue, the world watches to see whether Trump can overcome the logistical, legal and diplomatic obstacles standing between him and his promised peace deal.
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Image Credit:
Vladimir Putin — photo by The Presidential Press and Information Office of the President of the Russian Federation, licensed under CC BY 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
