Sir Keir Starmer faces fresh migration woes as hopes of announcing a Rwanda-style deportation deal at tomorrow’s summit with Balkan leaders have collapsed, with negotiations still at an early stage.
Government sources admitted to The Sun that talks requiring “a lot of work” have dashed expectations that the Prime Minister could use the meeting as a signing ceremony for return hubs in the Western Balkans.
The embarrassing setback comes as small boat Channel crossings are poised to smash last year’s total, with more than 36,700 migrants arriving so far – just 82 short of the entire 2024 figure.
Four Countries Still in Early-Stage Talks
Ministers had hoped to secure an agreement with at least one Balkan nation before tomorrow’s summit, allowing Starmer to claim progress on his pledge to “smash the gangs” and reduce irregular migration.
However, discussions with Kosovo, Serbia, Bosnia and North Macedonia remain at an early stage, with no deal imminent.
Albania, which was initially approached as a potential partner, was ruled out earlier this year when Prime Minister Edi Rama made clear his country would not host deportation centres for Britain.
The failure leaves Labour without a viable alternative to the Rwanda scheme the government scrapped immediately upon taking office.
Just 42 Returned to France Under “One-In, One-Out”
Whilst crossings surge towards record levels, deportations have barely registered despite Labour’s much-touted deal with France.
Only 42 migrants have been sent back to France under the one-in, one-out arrangement – a drop in the ocean compared to the tens of thousands arriving.
The figures expose the hollow nature of government claims that the French agreement represents a serious deterrent to Channel crossings.
Philp: “Catastrophic Mistake”
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp seized on the government’s failure, linking it directly to Labour’s decision to scrap the Rwanda scheme.
“Labour made a catastrophic mistake cancelling the Rwanda returns deterrent before it started with no replacement,” he said.
“Their attempts to do a Kosovo returns deal now seem doomed to fail.”
Philp’s criticism highlights how Labour ditched a functioning (if controversial) deterrent without having a workable alternative ready to implement.
Labour: “Will Do Whatever It Takes”
Despite the setbacks, a Labour spokesperson insisted the government remained committed to securing Britain’s borders.
“Our historic deal with the French means those who arrive on small boats are now being sent back,” the spokesperson claimed.
“We will scale up these removals to France. And we will do whatever it takes to secure our borders.”
The defiant language cannot mask that scaling up 42 returns to meaningful numbers would require deportations to increase roughly a thousandfold to match arrival rates.
Crossings Set to Exceed 2024
With 36,700 migrants having crossed the Channel so far and autumn weather still relatively mild, this year’s total looks certain to exceed 2024’s figure within days.
The continued flow undermines Labour’s narrative that scrapping Rwanda and focusing on international cooperation would solve the small boats crisis.
Criminal gangs appear undeterred by the change of government or the French agreement, continuing to launch boats whenever conditions allow.
Why Balkan Deals Prove Elusive
The Balkan nations Labour has approached face domestic political pressures that make hosting British deportation centres politically toxic.
These countries are either seeking EU membership (Serbia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, Kosovo) or have fragile domestic political situations that make controversial deals with Britain risky.
Albania’s rejection earlier this year signalled that other Balkan states would likely follow suit unless offered substantial financial incentives.
Even then, the optics of hosting deportation centres for a wealthy Western nation whilst seeking EU integration creates uncomfortable contradictions.
Rwanda v Balkans
Labour criticised the Rwanda scheme as expensive, unworkable and immoral throughout its time in opposition.
Yet the government now finds itself pursuing essentially identical deals with Balkan nations, just without Rwanda’s infrastructure or willingness to accept deportees.
The Conservative government had already paid Rwanda hundreds of millions to prepare facilities and legal frameworks for accepting deportees.
Starting from scratch with Balkan nations means years of negotiations and infrastructure development even if deals are eventually signed.
Baptisms in Bathtubs Controversy
Adding to Labour’s migration headaches, it emerged that migrants are being baptised in bathtubs in asylum hotels by Christian charities.
Some may reportedly be converting to Christianity specifically to strengthen their asylum claims, as persecution on religious grounds can support applications.
The Conservatives described the practice as “insanity,” arguing it represents gaming of the asylum system.
Christian conversions have become increasingly common amongst asylum seekers, particularly Iranians and Afghans, who can claim returning to their home countries would expose them to persecution.
Deterrent Debate
The fundamental question Labour hasn’t answered is what will deter Channel crossings if neither France nor Balkan nations will accept returnees in meaningful numbers.
Without credible threat of deportation, migrants have strong incentive to attempt crossings knowing they’re likely to remain in Britain even if their asylum claims fail.
The Rwanda scheme, whatever its flaws, at least represented a deterrent threat that criminal gangs had to factor into their calculations.
France Deal’s Limitations
Labour’s French agreement sounds impressive until you examine the numbers: 42 returns against 36,700 arrivals.
France accepts returns only in specific circumstances, primarily when migrants can be proven to have travelled through France immediately before crossing.
This narrow scope means the vast majority of Channel arrivals cannot be returned to France under the agreement.
Political Pressures Mount
As crossings continue unabated and Balkan deals prove elusive, political pressure on Starmer intensifies from multiple directions.
The Conservative opposition gleefully highlights Labour’s failure to deliver a working alternative to Rwanda.
Meanwhile, Labour’s own backbenchers grow restless about migration numbers that show no signs of falling.
Reform UK hovers in polling, ready to exploit any perceived weakness on border control.
Tomorrow’s Summit
With no deal to announce, tomorrow’s summit with Balkan leaders risks becoming an embarrassment rather than a triumph.
Starmer will need to manage expectations carefully whilst maintaining that progress is being made behind the scenes.
The risk is that media coverage focuses on what wasn’t achieved rather than vague commitments to continue talking.
What Happens Next
Labour faces an uncomfortable choice: continue pursuing unlikely Balkan deals whilst crossings surge, or acknowledge that deterring Channel crossings requires harder-edged policies they’ve previously rejected.
The government could potentially restart Rwanda-style deals elsewhere, though admitting this would mean accepting their original criticism was wrong.
Alternatively, they could abandon offshore processing entirely and focus on domestic detention and rapid deportations, though capacity and legal challenges make this difficult.
Or they could simply manage the arrivals whilst claiming their approach is more humane than Conservative policies, hoping voters prioritise other issues come election time.
As tomorrow’s summit approaches without a deal to show, Starmer’s migration strategy looks increasingly threadbare, with no obvious path to reducing the record numbers crossing the Channel.
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Image Credit:
Keir Starmer — photo by Scottish Government, licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons. (commons.wikimedia.org)
