Britain faces £30bn defence bill as PM claims Ukraine isn’t being cut adrift – even though summit statement fails to condemn Russian invasion
Sir Keir Starmer put on a brave face today as he insisted Donald Trump is “absolutely committed” to NATO – despite the US president causing panic by saying his support for the alliance’s mutual defence pact “depends on your definition.”
The Prime Minister’s diplomatic tightrope walk came at the end of a tense summit in The Hague that saw European leaders scrambling to placate the mercurial American president with promises of eye-watering defence spending increases.
In an extraordinary display of political theatre, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte publicly referred to Trump as “Daddy” while heaping praise on the president’s tough approach – a cringe-inducing moment that highlighted just how desperate the alliance has become to keep America onside.
Despite Trump’s alarming comments about Article 5 – the cornerstone promise that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all – Starmer tried to project confidence as he announced Britain would somehow find an extra £30billion a year for defence by 2035.
The £30 Billion Question Nobody Can Answer
The new NATO target of 5% of GDP for defence spending – split between 3.5% on “core defence” and 1.5% on related “resilience” measures – means Britain will need to magic up billions more for the military. But here’s the kicker: nobody knows where the money will come from.
Starmer claimed the UK would reach “at least 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2027,” but that still leaves a massive gap to fill within a decade. With public services already creaking and taxes at post-war highs, the Chancellor must be having sleepless nights.
Even more embarrassing for the alliance, several nations are already signalling they won’t meet the target. Spain has officially declared it’s opting out, while Trump himself – having demanded everyone else cough up 5% – has suggested America shouldn’t have to meet the same standard because it’s been “paying almost 100% of the cost” for years.
Ukraine Left in Limbo
Perhaps most concerning was the summit’s failure to explicitly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The watered-down communique merely refers to “the long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security” – diplomatic speak that wouldn’t frighten a dormouse, let alone Vladimir Putin.
When pressed on this glaring omission, Starmer insisted: “The position in NATO has not changed nor has my position changed.” But actions speak louder than words, and the absence of direct criticism of Putin’s war speaks volumes about Trump’s influence over the proceedings.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the summit but was relegated to meeting Trump on the sidelines rather than participating in the main session – another sign of Ukraine’s increasingly precarious position as Trump pushes for a quick deal with Russia.
Trump’s Article 5 Bombshell
The summit was dominated by anxiety over Trump’s commitment to NATO’s founding principle. En route to The Hague, the president sent shockwaves through the alliance by telling reporters his support for Article 5 “depends on your definition” and claiming there were “numerous definitions.”
It took 24 hours and considerable diplomatic massaging before Trump finally affirmed: “That’s why I’m here. Why would I be here?” – hardly the ringing endorsement nervous European leaders were hoping for.
Starmer tried to paper over the cracks, insisting: “I think it’s very important that we stand here as allies, and we do stand here as allies, absolutely committed to the importance of NATO.
But behind closed doors, European diplomats must be wondering whether America’s security guarantee is worth the paper it’s written on.
The Summit That Almost Wasn’t
The gathering itself was a testament to European fears about Trump. Organisers kept it deliberately short – just two and a half hours instead of the usual multi-day affair – amid concerns Trump might not show up or could storm out early, as he did at the G7 in Canada last week.
The shortened format meant less time for the detailed discussions that such summits usually feature, reducing it to what one diplomat privately called “a very expensive photo opportunity with added grovelling.”
Rutte’s ‘Daddy’ Moment
Nothing captured the desperation quite like NATO chief Mark Rutte’s toe-curling attempts to butter up Trump. The former Dutch PM not only called the president “Daddy” but sent him fawning private messages praising his “decisive action” and claiming he would achieve something “NO American president in decades could get done.
When asked if he’d deployed excessive flattery, Rutte claimed the two men were “friends” and that judgment of his approach was “a matter of taste.” Most observers would say the taste was decidedly sour.
Starmer’s Scramble for Relevance
The Prime Minister has been desperately trying to build bridges with Trump after his earlier missteps. He failed to fully back Trump’s decision to bomb Iranian nuclear sites, insisting he didn’t believe the president would strike Tehran – only to be proved spectacularly wrong.
Now Starmer finds himself in the awkward position of defending Trump’s commitment to NATO while simultaneously preparing for a world where America might not come to Europe’s defence. His claim that the summit sent a “decisive message to aggressors” rings hollow when the aggressors weren’t even named.
What Happens Next?
As European leaders return home from The Hague, they face some uncomfortable truths:
- The Money Problem: Finding an extra £30billion for defence means either massive tax rises or savage cuts elsewhere
- The Trump Problem: Nobody knows if America will honour its NATO commitments if push comes to shove
- The Unity Problem: With Spain already bailing on the spending target and others wavering, NATO unity is fracturing
- The Ukraine Problem: Without explicit support, Ukraine risks being thrown under the bus in any Trump-Russia deal
Starmer claimed NATO would emerge “stronger, fairer and more lethal than ever.” But as one senior European diplomat put it off the record: “We’re not stronger – we’re scared. We’re not fairer – we’re being extorted. And the only thing that’s lethal is the damage to transatlantic relations.”
The Prime Minister may insist everything is fine, but the cracks in the Western alliance have never been more visible. And with Trump back in the White House for another four years, they’re only going to get wider.
Image credit: Photo by No 10 Downing Street (via Flickr user UK Prime Minister), taken on 10 July 2024 at the NATO Summit in Washington, D.C. featuring Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Joe Biden, and Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0).
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