POLAND AT THE CROSSROADS: Nation votes in knife-edge presidential runoff as Trump-backed nationalist takes on pro-EU liberal

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Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski battles conservative historian Karol Nawrocki in election that will shape Poland’s future with Europe and America

BREAKING: Poland is voting TODAY in a nail-biting presidential runoff that will determine whether the nation embraces deeper European integration or follows a Trump-style nationalist path.

Liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, is locked in a dead heat with conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, 42, after neither candidate secured the 50% needed to win outright in the first round on May 18.

The stakes couldn’t be higher as Europe’s largest eastern economy chooses between two radically different visions for its future – with implications for NATO, Ukraine support, and Poland’s relationship with both Brussels and Washington.

POLLS TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Latest polls show the race is on a KNIFE EDGE:

• Both candidates are TIED at 46.3% according to the most recent polling aggregation
• Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round with 31.36%
• Nawrocki surprised pollsters by securing 29.54%
• Turnout at noon today reached 24.8%

The election has become a proxy battle between Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European coalition and the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party that ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023.

TRUMP’S CHOSEN CANDIDATE

In a stunning show of support, President Donald Trump welcomed Nawrocki to the White House’s Oval Office on May 2, telling the Polish candidate: “You will win!“

The conservative historian – who has NEVER held political office – also met with:

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio
• House Speaker Mike Johnson
• Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan

US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem flew to Poland last week to endorse Nawrocki at a conservative conference, even suggesting closer US-Polish military ties if he wins – with the implied WARNING that a Trzaskowski victory could jeopardize Poland’s security.

Karol Nawrocki is the only candidate who can guarantee Poland’s security and maintain strong alliances in difficult times, especially with the USA,” declared former parliament speaker Elżbieta Witek.

THE LIBERAL CHALLENGER

Trzaskowski, the multilingual mayor of Warsaw and son of a prominent jazz musician, represents the polar oppositevision for Poland:

• Strong supporter of deeper EU integration
• Pledges to roll back conservative judicial reforms
• Supports civil partnerships for LGBT couples
• Wants to relax Poland’s strict abortion laws
• Attended by 130,000-160,000 supporters at his Warsaw rally

The Warsaw mayor, who narrowly lost to outgoing President Andrzej Duda in 2020, has warned that Nawrocki would continue the “monopoly of power” that has blocked reforms.

SCANDAL AND CONTROVERSY

The campaign has been rocked by explosive allegations:

NAWROCKI’S PAST:

• Participated in a 2009 football hooligan brawl involving 140 rival fans
• Described the violent fight as a form of “noble combat“
• Accused of deceiving an elderly man over a flat purchase
• Caught using a nicotine pouch during a presidential debate

TRZASKOWSKI’S TROUBLES:

• Faced questions about foreign-funded online advertising
• Criticized for drinking with far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen
• Accused by opponents of being a Brussels “puppet

UKRAINE WAR LOOMS LARGE

With Poland sharing a border with war-torn Ukraine, security has dominated the campaign:

• Both candidates pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defense
• Nawrocki wants stronger ties with Trump’s America
• Trzaskowski emphasizes need for EU and US cooperation
• Rising anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Polish voters

Nawrocki has controversially pledged to NOT sign any laws ratifying Ukraine’s entry to NATO, tapping into war fatigue among some Poles.

FAR-RIGHT SURGE

The first round revealed a shocking rise in far-right support:

• Far-right candidates won over 21% combined – a historic high
• Young voters flocked to extremist candidates
• Third-place finisher Mentzen won 14.8% with anti-EU message
• Holocaust denier Grzegorz Braun secured 6.3%

PRESIDENTIAL POWERS AT STAKE

While largely ceremonial, Poland’s president wields crucial powers:

• Can VETO any legislation
• Commands the armed forces
• Steers foreign policy
• Current president Duda has blocked Tusk’s reforms for 18 months

A Trzaskowski victory would finally allow Tusk’s government to:

• Reform the controversial judicial system
• Align Poland with EU democratic norms
• Advance progressive social policies

A Nawrocki win means:

• Continued deadlock with the government
• Stronger ties with Trump’s America
• Opposition to EU migration and climate policies

VOTING UNDERWAY

Polling stations opened at 7am and will close at 9pm local time tonight, with:

• 29 million eligible voters
• Exit polls expected immediately after polls close
• Official results likely by Monday or Tuesday
• Winner takes office on August 6

The National Electoral Commission reports voting is proceeding smoothly across Poland’s 27,000 polling stations.

WHAT’S AT STAKE

This election will determine whether Poland:

• Remains at the heart of the EU or drifts toward nationalism
• Strengthens ties with Trump’s America or maintains balanced relations
• Continues conservative social policies or embraces progressive reforms
• Maintains its hardline stance or softens approach to Ukrainian refugees

As one Warsaw voter told reporters: “This is about choosing between the past and the future of Poland.”

Image credit: Rafał Trzaskowski 2020 Bytom by Adrian Tync, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Image credit: Karol Nawrocki at the unveiling of the Monument to the Cursed Unbreakable Soldiers, Mielec, 3 September 2022 by Jarosław Roland Kruk, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.