New Ipsos survey shows Reform on 34% – party’s highest ever score – as Conservatives plunge to record low of just 15%
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has opened up a stunning nine-point lead over Labour in a dramatic new poll that suggests the insurgent party could win a Commons majority if an election were held tomorrow.
The bombshell Ipsos survey puts Reform on 34% – the highest the pollster has ever recorded for the party – with Keir Starmer’s Labour trailing on 25% and the Conservatives languishing in third place on just 15%.
The extraordinary findings come less than a year after Labour’s landslide general election victory and represent a seismic shift in British politics that could see Farage installed in Number 10.
Tory Wipeout Warning
Sky News analysis suggests that if these figures were replicated across the country at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same way, Reform could win as many as 340 seats – giving it a majority of 30.
Labour would be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 from last year’s election triumph, while the Tories would hit a catastrophic record low of just 12 seats.
The devastating poll for Rishi Sunak’s successor Kemi Badenoch shows the Conservatives recording their lowest ever share in an Ipsos survey, raising immediate questions about her leadership.
Starmer In Freefall
The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have collapsed, with around three in four (73%) now dissatisfied with his performance – nearing the lowest point recorded under any modern Labour administration.
Just 25% of Britons are satisfied with Starmer’s performance, while his net satisfaction rating has plummeted since taking office less than a year ago.
Even more damaging for Labour, only 54% of people who voted for the party last July say they would do so again – a catastrophic retention rate for a governing party.
Farage Surge
By contrast, Nigel Farage has emerged as the most popular party leader with the highest satisfaction ratings, though still negative overall at -15 (34% satisfied, 49% dissatisfied).
Crucially, 90% of Reform supporters are satisfied with their leader – far higher than any other party leader enjoys among their base.
The public now sees Reform UK as the main opposition party, with 37% considering it most likely to lead a government if Labour loses, ahead of the Conservatives on 33%.
Immigration Driving Support
Reform UK enjoys the highest level of trust on immigration – the issue driving much of its support. The party is most trusted on:
- Having the right immigration policies (37%)
- Handling Channel crossings (39%)
- Making illegal entry more difficult (42%)
The Conservatives rank last on all three measures, underlining their collapse on what was once considered their strongest issue.
‘Change Is Coming’
The top reason voters give for considering Reform UK is that “they are most likely to provide the UK with the change it needs” – cited by 56% of those open to voting for the party.
Since the local elections in May, Reform has enjoyed a string of impressive polls, but this latest survey represents their strongest showing yet.
Ipsos’s new findings show Reform’s 34% vote share is nine points clear of Labour’s 25% – which itself is the lowest share the pollster has recorded for Labour since October 2019.
Youth Backing Farage
Perhaps most surprisingly, the boost in Farage’s popularity appears universal, with his ratings improving among supporters of all major parties.
His standing has particularly improved among 2024 Labour voters, while among Conservative voters from last year’s election, he has flipped from a -5 net favourability rating to +5.
A majority of Conservative voters (53%) now have a favourable opinion of Reform UK – a devastating finding for Badenoch’s leadership.
Badenoch On The Brink
The Conservative leader continues to hemorrhage support, with just one in six Britons (16%) holding a favourable opinion of her – the joint-lowest since she beat Robert Jenrick for the post last November.
Her net satisfaction rating stands at a dismal -49, with three in five (60%) dissatisfied and only one in nine (11%) satisfied with her performance.
Even among 2024 Conservative voters, just three in ten (29%) are satisfied with Badenoch, while 47% are dissatisfied.
Political Earthquake
Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “The last year has indeed been a long time in politics, with our first voting intention since the general election showing a dramatic transformation of the political landscape.
The symbolism of Reform UK topping yet another poll is likely to send shockwaves through Westminster, especially among Conservative backbenchers who have been hoping their leader could reverse the party’s decline.
With no election due until 2029, these are still early days. But the trajectory is clear: British politics is being reshaped before our eyes, with Farage’s Reform UK emerging as a genuine contender for power.
THE NUMBERS THAT SPELL DISASTER
REFORM UK: 34% (+20 from GE2024) LABOUR: 25% (-9 from GE2024) CONSERVATIVE: 15% (-9 from GE2024)
SEAT PROJECTIONS: Reform UK: 340 seats (majority of 30) Labour: 176 seats (-236) Conservative: 12 seats (-109)
SATISFACTION RATINGS: Farage: -15 (34% satisfied) Starmer: -49 (24% satisfied) Badenoch: -49 (11% satisfied)
Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,180 British adults aged 18+ between 30 May – 4 June 2025
David Iliff. “Nigel Farage speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg.” Photo taken on 4 February 2014 at 12:14:07 in Strasbourg, France, capturing Farage while serving as an MEP. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution‑ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY‑SA 3.0)—you must credit the author and include the license URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
