Sir Keir Starmer will finally break his silence today on the Peter Mandelson scandal as Labour MPs openly warn the Prime Minister could be “gone” within months if he fails to turn around his government’s dire political fortunes.
The PM will field questions for the first time since his controversial sacking of the US ambassador over extraordinary emails sent to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, with the government benches seething with fury over what critics describe as the latest example of the premier’s catastrophic judgment. On the eve of Donald Trump’s state visit to Britain, Labour MPs are identifying the May local elections as a make-or-break moment for Sir Keir, with fears that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could see another huge surge in support.
Left-wing Labour MP Richard Burgon told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme that Sir Keir would be “gone next May” unless he “changes course immediately”, warning that opinion polls suggest the local elections will be “a complete disaster” for the party. I think it’s inevitable that if May’s elections go as people predict, and the opinion polls predict, then I think Starmer will be gone at that time,” Mr Burgon said, adding that the government faces “a real threat for the first time in our country’s history” of a “far-right extremist government.
Mandelson Timeline Raises Questions
Sir Keir faces immediate challenges over what Downing Street knew about Lord Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein and when they knew it. It has emerged that No 10 became aware of the damning correspondence on Tuesday, two days before the ambassador was sacked, when Bloomberg News sent a 2,000-word memo seeking comment about emails containing Lord Mandelson’s suggestion that Epstein’s first conviction was wrongful and should be challenged.
Sources insist the information was not shared with Sir Keir at that time, allowing him to tell MPs during Wednesday’s Prime Minister’s Questions that he had “confidence” in his man in Washington. However, the revelation has intensified pressure on the PM’s all-powerful chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, with several MPs calling for him to be sacked over the handling of the crisis.
Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Oliver Robbins, formerly Theresa May’s Brexit chief, was seeking a response from Lord Mandelson about the emails, which only came on Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday morning, the Foreign Office announced that the “suggestion that Jeffrey Epstein’s first conviction was wrongful and should be challenged is new information” and Lord Mandelson had been “withdrawn as ambassador with immediate effect.”
The emails, published by Bloomberg and The Sun, revealed Lord Mandelson had written to Epstein the day before he began serving a jail sentence in 2008: “I think the world of you and I feel hopeless and furious about what has happened. I can still barely understand it. It just could not happen in Britain.”
Labour in Crisis
The Mandelson scandal compounds Sir Keir’s political woes, coming just a week after his influential deputy Angela Rayner resigned following her admission that she underpaid £40,000 ($54,000) in stamp duty on an £800,000 seaside apartment in Hove. Ms Rayner’s departure, after an ethics investigation found she had breached the ministerial code, marked the second major scandal at the top of government in less than a week.
Education Select Committee chair Helen Hayes warned that if the May elections were as bad as feared, there would have to be “questions about the nature of the leadership.” She told broadcasters: “If those elections don’t go well then that will be the time to ask questions… Questions about the nature of the leadership and whether things can continue as they are.”
The political crisis comes as recent polling shows Sir Keir’s popularity has plummeted to historic lows. YouGov data from May showed just 23% of Britons expressed a favourable view of the Prime Minister, down from 44% when he took office a year ago, marking his lowest-ever rating. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has been gaining ground, with some polls suggesting the party could win the most seats if an election were held today.
Nuclear Deal Announcement Amid Crisis
Sir Keir will attempt to move the focus away from the scandals by unveiling details of a new nuclear power deal with America later today. The announcement comes as the PM prepares for Trump’s state visit on Tuesday, which is likely to be met with protests and controversy.
Skills minister Baroness Jacqui Smith denied Sir Keir was in the “last-chance saloon”, telling Times Radio: “What Keir Starmer is doing today is he’s in Downing Street meeting with representatives from the nuclear industry to talk about the deal we are striking with the US this week to help us get back control of our energy supply and build more nuclear power.
However, the attempt to shift attention to policy announcements may prove challenging as questions mount about the government’s vetting processes and judgment. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Sir Keir of having “no backbone and no convictions,” stating: “Mandelson might have gone but, just as with Angela Rayner, Starmer dithered when he needed to be decisive.
Growing Discontent on Labour Benches
The discontent extends beyond the usual left-wing critics of Sir Keir’s leadership. MPs across the party are expressing alarm at the government’s trajectory, with one describing the situation as feeling like “years and years into an unpopular government, rather than a year into a government that’s just got rid of the Conservatives.”
Mr Burgon’s stark warning encapsulated the mood: “We’re losing votes to the left, we’re going to be losing seats to the right. The Prime Minister needs to change course immediately, otherwise, I’m pretty certain he’ll be gone next May as it stands.”
The MP for Leeds East added that lots of MPs were “looking to the elections next May” with dread, noting that the government appeared to be haemorrhaging support from multiple directions simultaneously.
Mandelson’s Legacy of Scandal
Lord Mandelson’s firing marks the third time he has been forced out of a senior government role over separate scandals, earning him the nickname “Prince of Darkness” for his Machiavellian political skills. His relationship with Epstein had been public knowledge for years, with photos showing him in a bathrobe at Epstein’s Manhattan home in 2009, after the financier’s conviction for sex crimes.
In a 2003 birthday book compiled for Epstein, Lord Mandelson had written a handwritten note describing the convicted sex offender as “my best pal.” When challenged about this relationship before his firing, Lord Mandelson said he now saw Epstein as “a charismatic criminal liar” and regretted falling for his lies.
The scandal has raised serious questions about the government’s vetting processes, with Downing Street insisting the process was “extensive” whilst maintaining they have full confidence in it. A government source suggested the “onus” was on Lord Mandelson to disclose information about his relationship with Epstein during vetting.
Trump Visit Looms
The timing of the scandal could hardly be worse, with President Trump due to arrive for his state visit on Tuesday. Lord Mandelson would have played a key role in the visit as ambassador, and his absence leaves a significant diplomatic gap at a crucial moment for UK-US relations.
James Roscoe, the UK deputy head of mission in Washington, will serve as interim ambassador and oversee Trump’s state visit. The president had briefly commented on the scandal, posting on Truth Social: “What’s with Britain firing its ambassador? Here we go!”
As Sir Keir prepares to face questions about the scandal today, the growing chorus of dissent from his own MPs suggests his political authority is draining away at an alarming rate. With Reform UK positioning itself to capitalise on Labour’s weakness and the May elections looming as a potential day of reckoning, the Prime Minister who entered No 10 with a massive majority just over a year ago finds himself fighting for his political survival.
The revelation that Downing Street knew about the damning Epstein emails days before Lord Mandelson’s sacking, combined with questions about who knew what and when, ensures that today’s questioning will be particularly brutal for a Prime Minister already on the ropes.
Follow for more updates on Britannia Daily
Image Credit:
Keir Starmer visiting Northern Ireland (7 July 2024) — photo by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, licensed under OGL 3.0.
