Reform UK leader Nigel Farage will announce another Conservative defection to his party at a press conference scheduled for 11am today, marking the latest blow to Kemi Badenoch’s embattled opposition as the insurgent party maintains its commanding lead in opinion polls.
The identity of the defector remains under wraps ahead of the announcement, but the move will add to Reform UK’s growing roster of former Conservative politicians who have crossed the floor since the party’s electoral breakthrough in July 2024. Farage is also expected to use the platform to launch a new crime policy, addressing one of voters’ top concerns.
The defection comes as Reform UK continues to dominate national polling, having led in the last 57 consecutive opinion polls according to party sources. Recent YouGov polling showed the party maintaining a significant lead over both Labour and the Conservatives, with some projections suggesting Reform could win the most seats in a hypothetical election.
Reform UK has systematically targeted disillusioned Conservative politicians and voters since the general election. The party now boasts four MPs in the House of Commons, including Farage himself representing Clacton, alongside former Conservative Lee Anderson (Ashfield), Richard Tice (Boston and Skegness), and James McMurdock (South Basildon and East Thurrock).
High-profile defections have accelerated in recent months. In July, former Conservative chairman Sir Jake Berry joined Reform UK, describing the Tories as “unrecognisable” from the party he once led. Berry, who served under Liz Truss and championed the Northern Research Group’s levelling-up agenda, brought significant campaign experience and insider knowledge of Conservative Party operations.
The Welsh Conservatives suffered their own setback when Laura Anne Jones, a member of the Senedd for South Wales East, defected to Reform UK at the Royal Welsh Show. Jones, who had been a Conservative member for 31 years, became Reform’s first representative in the Welsh Parliament, with Farage hailing the move as a “big step forward” for the party in Wales.
Today’s announcement follows a pattern of strategic timing by Reform UK, with defections often coinciding with policy launches or significant political moments. The party has been courting several unnamed former Conservative MPs, with speculation mounting that a sitting MP could be among future defectors.
Suella Braverman, the former Home Secretary, is widely viewed within Westminster as the most likely current Conservative MP to switch sides, though she has not commented publicly on such speculation. Reform sources suggest they have “a few more cards up their sleeves” as they continue their recruitment drive.
The new crime policy announcement reflects Reform UK’s focus on law and order issues that resonate strongly with their target demographic. Immigration and crime consistently rank among the top concerns for Reform voters, with 88 per cent of Conservative-to-Reform defectors citing immigration as one of the most pressing issues facing Britain.
Reform UK’s platform has evolved from its Brexit Party origins to encompass a broader right-wing populist agenda. The party advocates for freezing non-essential immigration, introducing tougher sentences for criminals, and leaving the European Convention on Human Rights. Their “common sense” approach to crime and policing has found receptive audiences among voters disappointed with both major parties.
The timing of today’s announcement appears calculated to maximise impact ahead of the autumn political season. With the Conservative Party conference approaching in Birmingham next month, another high-profile defection would underscore the challenges facing Badenoch’s leadership just months into her tenure.
Business groups and lobbying firms have taken notice of Reform UK’s rising influence. All of Britain’s “big five” business lobby groups confirmed they would attend Reform’s upcoming annual conference in September, a marked shift from previous years when the party operated on the political fringes.
The Conservative Party has attempted to downplay the significance of recent defections, with officials pointing to ideological inconsistencies among some defectors. However, the steady drumbeat of departures has created a narrative of momentum that Reform UK has skilfully exploited.
For Farage, who celebrated his 60th birthday earlier this year, the party’s success represents vindication of his decision to return to frontline politics. Having initially planned to continue his media career with GB News, where he was voted news presenter of the year, Farage’s last-minute entry into the general election campaign transformed Reform UK’s prospects.
The party’s appeal extends beyond former Conservative voters. Analysis shows that 26 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters have switched to Reform UK, with defectors tending to be older, more likely to be male, and overwhelmingly pro-Brexit. These voters express frustration with what they perceive as broken promises on immigration and a Conservative Party that has drifted too far from its traditional values.
Today’s 11am announcement will be closely watched for signs of Reform UK’s strategic direction as it seeks to consolidate its position as Britain’s primary right-wing political force. With local elections scheduled for next year and speculation about an early general election persisting, every defection adds to the narrative of a party on the rise.
As Westminster awaits the reveal of Reform UK’s latest recruit, the broader question remains whether the Conservatives can stem the tide of defections or whether Farage’s party will continue its march towards what it hopes will be electoral victory at the next general election.
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- Nigel Farage addressing Reform UK rally at Trago Mills, Devon – English description: Nigel Farage addressing Reform UK rally at Trago Mills, Devon, taken on 24 June 2024 at 19:11:51 BST by Owain.davies(uploaded as own work), licensed under Creative Commons Attribution‑ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY‑SA 4.0)
