Reform UK has achieved an unprecedented political breakthrough, securing 34 per cent support in the latest FindOutNow UK poll – more than the combined 33 per cent backing for Labour and the Conservatives in what would mark a seismic shift in British politics.
The extraordinary polling figures, which show Labour collapsing to just 18 per cent and the Conservatives at a historic low of 15 per cent, would translate into a Reform UK landslide with 407 seats and a parliamentary majority of 164 according to Electoral Calculus projections.
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats trail in fourth place with 13 per cent, whilst the Green Party rounds out the major parties with 10 per cent support. The results represent the culmination of months of steady gains for Nigel Farage’s party, which has capitalised on widespread disillusionment with both major parties.
Deputy Leader Claims Victory
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice hailed the results as vindication of the party’s summer campaign strategy. “Our summer of campaigning has clearly had an impact,” he declared. Voters are fleeing Labour and Tories and sailing over to Reform in large numbers. We give them a very warm welcome!”
The polling surge follows consistent growth throughout 2025, with Reform benefiting from what analysts describe as an unprecedented collapse in support for the traditional governing parties. The party has retained almost all its 2024 general election voters whilst winning over a third of Conservative supporters and attracting 70 per cent of those who abstained last year but now say they would “definitely vote.”
FindOutNow’s methodology, which explicitly asks about likelihood to vote before party preference, has consistently shown stronger Reform support than other pollsters. The company argues this approach better captures the enthusiasm gap between Reform voters and supporters of other parties.
Labour’s Dramatic Decline
The governing Labour Party’s fall to just 18 per cent represents a catastrophic loss of support less than 14 months after their general election victory. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s personal ratings have plummeted, with 73 per cent expressing dissatisfaction with his performance – matching the worst ratings recorded by Margaret Thatcher.
Even among 2024 Labour voters, only 39 per cent remain satisfied with Starmer’s leadership. The party’s support has haemorrhaged across multiple demographics, with particular weakness among younger voters and those in traditional Red Wall constituencies.
Labour’s collapse has been attributed to multiple factors including economic stagnation, unpopular tax rises, and a perceived failure to deliver on manifesto promises. The party now faces the prospect of losing hundreds of seats if current polling translates into electoral reality.
Conservative Historic Low
The Conservative Party’s 15 per cent showing marks the lowest support ever recorded for the party in modern polling history. Under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, the Tories have failed to recover from their 2024 general election defeat, instead seeing further erosion of their traditional base.
Reform UK has successfully positioned itself as the primary opposition to Labour, with polling showing the public now view Farage’s party as more likely to form the next government than the Conservatives. A third of 2024 Conservative voters have already defected to Reform, with more indicating they might follow.
Badenoch’s personal ratings remain dire, with just 21 per cent viewing her favourably compared to 52 per cent unfavourably. Among Conservative voters from the last election, fewer than a quarter trust her to represent Britain on the international stage.
Electoral Calculus Projections
The Electoral Calculus website’s projection of 407 Reform UK seats would represent one of the most dramatic political realignments in British history. Their model suggests Reform would win seats across England and Wales, breaking through in both traditional Labour heartlands and Conservative strongholds.
Key projected gains include:
- Former Red Wall constituencies across the North and Midlands
- Coastal seats in the South and East
- Rural Conservative strongholds
- Suburban seats around major cities
The projections show Labour reduced to just 118 seats, concentrated in inner London and other metropolitan areas, whilst the Conservatives would retain only 72 seats, primarily in the Home Counties and rural Scotland.
Farage Factor
Nigel Farage’s personal ratings significantly outperform other party leaders, with 34 per cent satisfaction compared to negative ratings for all rivals. Among Reform supporters, an extraordinary 90 per cent express satisfaction with his leadership – far exceeding loyalty rates for other party leaders.
Public polling shows Farage is now considered as likely as Starmer to become the next Prime Minister, with 41 per cent of voters saying they simply don’t know what the next government will look like. His ability to dominate media coverage and set the political agenda has proved crucial to Reform’s rise.
The party has successfully positioned itself as the anti-establishment option, attracting voters disillusioned with what they see as a failed political consensus on issues ranging from immigration to economic policy.
Green and Liberal Democrat Positions
The Liberal Democrats‘ 13 per cent support represents a slight decline from their 2024 general election performance, though Electoral Calculus still projects them winning 69 seats due to concentrated support in target constituencies. Leader Ed Davey enjoys 30 per cent favourability, the highest since July 2024.
The Green Party’s 10 per cent showing reflects solid consolidation of their environmental voter base, though this would likely translate to just one or two seats under first-past-the-post. Their support remains strongest among younger urban voters and in university constituencies.
Both parties face the challenge of remaining relevant in an increasingly polarised political landscape dominated by Reform’s insurgency and the collapse of the traditional two-party system.
Methodology and Caveats
FindOutNow interviewed 2,380 nationally representative adults for this poll, with the sample weighted by gender, age, region, ethnicity and 2024 voting patterns. The company is a member of the British Polling Council and adheres to its disclosure rules.
However, significant caveats apply to these dramatic findings. Opinion polls represent a snapshot of current sentiment rather than predictive forecasts, and British politics has seen volatile swings in recent years. The next general election need not be held until August 2029, leaving substantial time for political dynamics to shift.
Other polling companies show less dramatic leads for Reform, though all confirm the party has established itself as a major force in British politics. The variation partly reflects different methodological approaches to handling “don’t know” responses and turnout weighting.
Historical Context
Reform UK’s rise represents the culmination of long-term trends in British politics, including declining trust in traditional parties, concerns over immigration, and economic dissatisfaction. The party has succeeded where previous insurgent movements like UKIP and the Brexit Party ultimately failed – in translating protest votes into sustained political support.
The last comparable political realignment occurred in the 1920s when Labour replaced the Liberals as one of Britain’s two major parties. However, even that transformation took place over several election cycles rather than the rapid shift suggested by current polling.
As British politics enters uncharted territory, all parties face fundamental questions about their future direction and electoral strategy. For Reform UK, the challenge will be maintaining momentum whilst building the organisational capacity to fight a general election. For Labour and the Conservatives, survival itself may be at stake.
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Image Credit:
Nigel Farage — photo by Gage Skidmore, originally posted to Flickr. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY-SA 2.0)
