Sir Keir Starmer is preparing an urgent ministerial reshuffle as early as Monday in a desperate bid to boost economic expertise within his faltering government, after his third senior aide departed Number 10 in less than a year.
The shake-up follows the abrupt exit of Ninjeri Pandit, the Prime Minister’s principal private secretary, who is leaving her role after just ten months amid reports Starmer had become “concerned” she was “ineffective” in the position. Dan York-Smith, a heavyweight Treasury official who has served six chancellors, is expected to replace her in a clear signal of Downing Street’s need to bolster its economic credentials.
The timing of the reshuffle, first reported by Guido Fawkes, appears deliberately calculated to steal thunder from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK conference scheduled for Friday next week – with Labour MPs openly calling for action to divert attention from their populist rivals.
Third Senior Departure in Twelve Months
Pandit’s departure marks the third high-profile exit from Starmer’s inner circle in twelve months, following former chief of staff Sue Gray’s acrimonious departure in October and communications director Matthew Doyle’s resignation in March. Unlike her predecessors, who were political appointees, Pandit is a civil servant who previously ran the Number 10 policy unit under Rishi Sunak.
Sources close to Number 10 told the BBC the Prime Minister had become concerned about Pandit’s effectiveness, though Downing Street officially maintains she retains Starmer’s “trust and confidence.” The Guardian understands she will be moved to a new policy delivery role rather than leaving government entirely.
“The Prime Minister wants to take more direct control of delivery,” a Downing Street source insisted, attempting to frame the move as a strategic decision rather than a performance issue.
Labour Trails Reform in Devastating Polls
The staffing crisis comes as Labour faces catastrophic poll ratings that have seen the party fall behind Reform UK for the first time. An Ipsos poll in June showed Farage’s party on 34 per cent – nine points ahead of Labour’s 25 per cent, the party’s lowest share since October 2019.
YouGov polling in August revealed Starmer’s net favourability had plummeted to -44, with 68 per cent of Britons viewing him unfavourably. Perhaps most damaging, the Prime Minister recorded his first ever negative approval rating among Labour voters, with half (51 per cent) now holding an unfavourable view.
The government’s approval rating sits at a devastating -54, with just 13 per cent approval against 63 per cent disapproval – figures that mirror Gordon Brown’s ratings after the 2008 financial crash.
Economic Expertise Urgently Needed
Dan York-Smith’s expected appointment signals a clear recognition within Number 10 of the need for heavyweight economic expertise. The experienced Treasury mandarin currently oversees tax and welfare policy and has led economic strategy for six chancellors – experience that could prove vital as Rachel Reeves prepares her crucial second Budget in October.
The Chancellor faces mounting pressure with public finances potentially facing a £50 billion gap. Labour MPs are pushing her to scrap self-imposed fiscal rules for greater flexibility, while she contemplates potential taxes on the wealthy, property owners and businesses to boost anaemic growth figures.
“York-Smith is an experienced Treasury official who has led economic strategy for six chancellors,” noted one Westminster insider. “His appointment will be taken as a sign of Number 10’s need to beef up economic expertise.”
Cabinet Secretary Safe Despite Briefings
Despite swirling rumours about his effectiveness, cabinet secretary Chris Wormald appears safe in his role. The Guardian reports that Downing Street sources believe Wormald, who only took up the position in December 2024, will remain despite briefings from colleagues suggesting he has been “ineffective.”
Wormald replaced Simon Case as the country’s most senior civil servant after a lengthy recruitment process. At his appointment, Starmer praised him as perfectly placed to drive forward the government’s “Plan for Change,” requiring “nothing less than the complete re-wiring of the British state.”
However, critics have noted Wormald’s reluctance to embrace radical structural reform, with the new cabinet secretary telling MPs that “there is not a structure that you can create that solves the problem” when discussing government reorganisation.
Reform UK Looms Large
The timing of the reshuffle appears directly linked to Reform UK’s growing threat. Farage’s party has overtaken Labour in multiple polls, with the British public now more likely to consider Reform UK (37 per cent) as the main opposition party ahead of the Conservatives (33 per cent).
Most alarmingly for Labour, 39 per cent of voters believe Farage is more likely to become Prime Minister than Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch (25 per cent) – a remarkable shift for a party with just five MPs.
“Some Labour MPs believe a reshuffle should occur in early September to divert attention away from Nigel Farage’s Reform conference on Friday next week,” sources confirmed to Westminster reporters.
Immigration Crisis Fuels Discontent
Reform UK’s surge has been fuelled by Labour’s failure to tackle illegal immigration, with trust in both main parties collapsing. Ipsos polling from May showed Reform UK enjoys the highest trust on immigration policies (37 per cent), handling Channel crossings (39 per cent), and making illegal entry more difficult (42 per cent).
Farage himself is the most trusted political leader on immigration (28 per cent), well ahead of Starmer, while Labour and the Conservatives languish at around 25 per cent trust on these issues.
The crisis has been exacerbated by record small boat crossings, with more than 52,000 migrants arriving since Starmer took office – prompting even Labour grandees like Jack Straw to call for “decoupling” from the European Convention on Human Rights.
Junior Ministers in the Firing Line
The expected reshuffle will focus on junior ministerial positions, with Starmer looking to promote “rising stars” from the new intake while filling at least one vacancy left by Rushanara Ali. The former homelessness minister quit before recess following reports about her conduct as a landlord.
Sources suggest the Prime Minister is particularly keen to appoint ministers with economic and infrastructure expertise to bolster his policy unit – appointments that have been “long rumoured” but never materialised.
The reshuffle represents Starmer’s latest attempt to reset his troubled premiership after what one Labour MP described as “14 turbulent months in office” that have seen multiple policy U-turns on fuel allowances, welfare cuts and demands for a national grooming gangs inquiry.
Pressure Mounts from All Sides
The Prime Minister faces mounting pressure from multiple directions. Labour’s left wing accuses him of pursuing “austerity policies,” with several party elders demanding the removal of the two-child benefit cap that saw seven MPs lose the whip for rebelling.
Meanwhile, Reform UK continues to hoover up working-class voters, with the party retaining 95 per cent of its 2024 supporters while both Labour and the Conservatives struggle to hold onto half their voters from the last election.
As one senior Labour figure admitted: “Reform reaches a new record high in any poll. Real change is coming to Britain” – though not the change Starmer promised when he entered Number 10 just over a year ago.
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Image Credit (Shortened):
Keir Starmer gives a press statement on the Southport terror inquiry (21 Jan 2025, Downing Street) – by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, licensed under OGL v3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
