PM stays bullish as approval ratings hit rock bottom and Farage’s Reform surges to top spot
Prime Minister Keir Starmer is trying to brush off the most catastrophic polling collapse in modern British political history. But can he really ignore the writing on the wall?
The 62-year-old Labour leader’s approval ratings have plummeted to a staggering -46 according to YouGov. That’s not just bad – it’s historically dreadful for any sitting PM.
Even more alarming? His own supporters are turning their backs on him in droves.
LABOUR VOTERS DESERT STARMER
Half of Labour voters now view their own Prime Minister unfavourably. Let that sink in. The very people who put him in Downing Street less than a year ago are having serious second thoughts.
This marks the first time Starmer has recorded negative approval ratings among his own party faithful. When your own team starts questioning your leadership, you know you’re in deep trouble.
But Starmer isn’t panicking. At least, that’s what he wants us to believe.
Speaking to The Sunday Times, the PM adopted a remarkably casual attitude towards his political freefall. He insists he doesn’t lose sleep over the numbers that would send most politicians into crisis mode.
“I DON’T OBSESS ABOUT THE POLLING”
His response to the devastating figures? Pure nonchalance.
Starmer told the newspaper he tries to make criticism bounce off him. The polling disaster is something he attempts to ignore rather than address head-on.
According to the PM, getting bogged down in approval ratings would rob him of the ability to focus on governing. He’d rather keep his head down and carry on than spend time fretting about public opinion.
It’s a bold strategy. Some might call it admirably stoic. Others would argue it’s dangerously out of touch.
FARAGE’S REFORM TSUNAMI SWEEPS BRITAIN
While Starmer plays it cool, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is riding a wave of unprecedented success. A bombshell YouGov MRP poll released this week painted a picture that would have seemed impossible just months ago.
If a general election were held tomorrow, Reform would emerge as the largest party with 271 seats. That’s a jump from their current tally of just five MPs to becoming the dominant force in British politics.
Labour, meanwhile, would crash to a humiliating 178 seats – losing over 200 from their current majority. It would be their worst result since 1935, making even Jeremy Corbyn’s 2019 disaster look respectable by comparison.
The Conservatives would fare even worse, collapsing to a pitiful 46 seats. That would place them fourth behind the Liberal Democrats in what experts are calling a complete realignment of British politics.
STARMER’S VERDICT ON FARAGE THREAT
So how does the PM view the man who could potentially kick him out of Number 10? Starmer’s assessment of Farage reveals a mixture of grudging respect and pointed criticism.
He acknowledges Farage’s communication skills while questioning his substance. The Reform leader may know how to work a crowd and dominate headlines, but Starmer argues he lacks the policy depth needed for serious governance.
It’s a classic establishment response to populist challengers – dismiss them as all style and no substance. Whether voters agree is another matter entirely.
THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE
The polling data tells a story of remarkable political upheaval. Reform UK has surged to 25% in voting intention polls, placing them narrowly ahead of Labour on 24%. The Conservatives trail behind on 21%.
For the first time since YouGov began tracking, Reform leads in the polls. Farage’s party has also seen a dramatic improvement in public perception, with 35% now viewing them favourably – up seven points from last month.
Meanwhile, Labour’s favourability has sunk to its lowest point since 2017. A staggering 65% of Britons now view the governing party unfavourably.
CABINET IN CRISIS
It’s not just Starmer feeling the heat. His entire top team is struggling with dire approval ratings that would make seasoned politicians wince.
Deputy PM Angela Rayner has hit a record low of -31 net favourability. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper isn’t faring much better at -25. Even Chancellor Rachel Reeves has matched her worst-ever rating of -48.
The rot goes right to the core of government. When your entire cabinet is underwater in the polls, it suggests systemic problems rather than isolated difficulties.
REFORM’S REMARKABLE RISE
Farage’s political resurrection has been nothing short of extraordinary. When he returned to lead Reform last year, few predicted such a dramatic turnaround.
The party’s appeal spans age groups in ways that traditional analysis struggles to explain. They’re attracting 19% of younger voters – nearly four times the Conservative share among that demographic.
Among older voters, Reform trails the Tories by just five percentage points in the 65-plus category. That’s remarkable for a party written off as a fringe movement not so long ago.
LABOUR’S LOST VOTERS
Where have Labour’s supporters gone? The exodus tells its own story about Starmer’s struggles to hold his coalition together.
Only 54% of people who voted Labour in July would back the party again today. The rest have scattered across the political spectrum – 7% to the Liberal Democrats, 6% to the Greens, 5% to Reform, and 4% even to the Conservatives.
Perhaps most worrying for Labour strategists, 17% of their former voters now say they’re completely unsure where their loyalty lies. That level of political homelessness suggests deep dissatisfaction with all available options.
COMMUNICATION CHAOS
Starmer himself has acknowledged that his government struggles with messaging. He admits they’ve failed to articulate their vision effectively to the public.
It’s a damning self-assessment from a PM who built his reputation as a forensic communicator during his years as Director of Public Prosecutions and Shadow Brexit Secretary.
The admission suggests Labour recognises they have a serious perception problem. Whether they can fix it before it becomes terminal remains to be seen.
FARAGE FACTOR
Despite Reform’s polling surge, head-to-head comparisons reveal the complexity of public opinion. When asked to choose directly between Starmer and Farage as PM, 44% still prefer the incumbent versus 29% for the challenger.
It suggests voters may be using Reform as a protest vehicle rather than genuinely believing in Farage’s premiership credentials. But in politics, protest votes can quickly become real power if the circumstances align.
TORY WIPEOUT
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch faces an even steeper mountain to climb. Her party’s favourability ratings remain stuck in negative territory, with just 16% viewing her positively compared to 54% unfavourably.
The Tories are being squeezed from both sides – losing traditional voters to Reform while failing to win back those who defected to Labour. It’s a political vice that shows no signs of loosening.
HUNG PARLIAMENT LOOMING
Despite Reform topping the hypothetical seat projections, the MRP model shows 97% of simulations producing a hung parliament. No single party would command the majority needed to govern alone.
Coalition mathematics become fiendishly complex in such scenarios. A “Unite the Right” alliance between Reform and the Conservatives would succeed in just 9% of cases. Progressive coalitions fare even worse, managing majorities in only 3% of simulations.
STARMER’S LEGACY QUESTION
The PM came to power promising to be the change candidate after years of Conservative chaos. Ten months later, he’s presiding over his own crisis of confidence.
History will judge whether his water-off-a-duck’s-back approach to criticism demonstrates admirable focus or dangerous complacency. Right now, the British public seems increasingly convinced it’s the latter.
The man who once prosecuted criminals with methodical precision now finds himself in the dock of public opinion. His defence? Keep calm and carry on.
Whether that strategy can weather the political storm engulfing his government remains the biggest question in British politics today.
The verdict from voters is already in. The question now is whether Starmer will listen.
Image credit: Photo by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, showing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivering a press statement at Downing Street. Taken on 5 July 2024. Licensed under the UK Open Government Licence v3.0 (Crown copyright).
License: Open Government Licence (OGL) v3.0
Image page: View on Wikimedia Commons
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