Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce Britain’s formal recognition of a Palestinian state in a statement on Sunday afternoon, marking a fundamental change in British foreign policy after successive governments insisted recognition should only come as part of a negotiated peace process.
The move follows the Prime Minister’s July ultimatum that the UK would shift its position in September unless Israel met specific conditions including agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza and committing to a long-term sustainable peace deal delivering a two-state solution. With those conditions unmet and the humanitarian crisis deepening, ministers believe the time for recognition has arrived.
Government sources said the situation on the ground had worsened significantly in recent weeks, citing images of starvation and violence in Gaza that the Prime Minister has described as “intolerable.” Israel’s latest ground operation in Gaza City, which a UN official termed “cataclysmic,” has forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes.
The decision comes just days after a United Nations commission of inquiry concluded Israel had committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, finding that Israeli authorities had committed four of the five genocidal acts defined under the 1948 Genocide Convention. Israel denounced the findings as “distorted and false.”
International Context and Timing
Britain’s recognition places it alongside 147 of the 193 UN member states that already recognise Palestinian statehood, representing over 76% of the global community. The UK joins France, which announced similar plans in July, with both nations expected to make formal declarations at the UN General Assembly meeting in New York.
Portugal confirmed on Friday it would recognise Palestine on Sunday, whilst Australia, Canada, Luxembourg, Malta, Belgium, Andorra and San Marino have all signalled their intention to follow suit next week. This wave of recognitions represents a significant diplomatic shift among Western nations that had previously withheld recognition.
Justice Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, who served as Foreign Secretary when the recognition path was announced in July, cited Israel’s controversial E1 settlement project as a key factor in the decision. The project, approved in August, would build 3,400 homes in a corridor that experts say would effectively split the West Bank in two and end hopes for a contiguous Palestinian state.
“The recognition of a Palestinian state is as a consequence of the serious expansion that we’re seeing in the West Bank, the settler violence that we’re seeing in the West Bank, and the intention and indications that we’re seeing to build for example the E1 development that would run a coach and horses through the possibility of a two-state solution,” Lammy stated.
The E1 Settlement Crisis
The E1 development, first proposed in 1994 but frozen for decades under US pressure, has become a flashpoint in the recognition debate. Located east of Jerusalem, it would link the illegal settlement of Ma’ale Adumim to occupied East Jerusalem, severing the Palestinian cities of Ramallah and Bethlehem whilst cutting East Jerusalem off from the rest of the West Bank.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich celebrated the project’s approval in August, declaring it would “bury” the two-state solution and that “the Palestinian state is being erased from the table not by slogans but by deeds.” He explicitly framed it as a rebuke to nations recognising Palestinian statehood, stating each settlement was “another nail in the coffin of this dangerous idea.”
The UN, European Union and international legal experts have warned that E1 construction would deal a “fatal blow” to any viable Palestinian state. The area is home to 18 Palestinian Bedouin communities who face eviction, with 112 demolition orders already issued for homes and businesses along the planned route.
More than 700,000 Israeli settlers now live in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, in settlements considered illegal under international law – a position Israel disputes.
Genocide Findings Accelerate Decision
The UN commission’s genocide determination this week appears to have accelerated Britain’s timeline. The panel, led by former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, found “genocidal intent was the only reasonable inference” from Israeli operations in Gaza, citing the killing of unprecedented numbers of Palestinians, imposition of starvation conditions, systematic destruction of healthcare and education systems, and direct targeting of children.
The commission specifically named Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant as having “incited the commission of genocide,” calling for international action to end what it termed Israel’s “genocidal campaign.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry rejected the report as relying on “Hamas falsehoods” and accused the authors of being “proxies” for the militant group with “openly antisemitic positions.” The US State Department also denounced the findings, calling them evidence of the UN’s “moral bankruptcy.”
However, the report represents the most authoritative UN finding to date, following similar determinations by the International Association of Genocide Scholars and warnings from the International Court of Justice, which has ordered provisional measures Israel has allegedly disregarded.
Government Rationale
Ministers argue there is now a moral responsibility to act to keep hopes for long-term peace alive. The recognition is intended to demonstrate unequivocally that Britain views a Palestinian state alongside Israel as the only viable solution securing both peoples’ futures.
Palestinian statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people,” the government stated in July. “It is not in the gift of any neighbour and is also essential to the long-term security of Israel.”
The timing is particularly significant given President Donald Trump’s intervention this week, when he told Starmer he could “call in the military” to tackle Britain’s migrant crisis. Trump has opposed Palestinian recognition, claiming it “rewards terror,” though he has not reaffirmed support for a two-state solution since taking office.
Government sources emphasised that recognition does not reward Hamas, which Britain designates as a terrorist organisation. Officials note that Hamas opposes a two-state solution and has violently resisted previous peace processes. The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank and is separate from Hamas, has welcomed the recognition plans.
Opposition and Israeli Response
The move has drawn fierce criticism from Israel, with Netanyahu previously warning that recognition “rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism.” Israeli officials argue there is “no Palestinian partner for peace” and that recognition undermines negotiations.
Some British Conservatives have also opposed the move, arguing it fails to place sufficient conditions on Palestinian governance. Critics question how a state can be recognised when its proposed territory is fragmented, its borders undefined, and governance split between the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza.
However, supporters argue that recognition strengthens moderate Palestinian voices and Saudi Arabia’s emerging role as a peace broker. Riyadh has made Palestinian statehood central to any normalisation deal with Israel, potentially offering Jerusalem a transformative prize of regional acceptance if it commits to genuine peace negotiations.
Legal and Diplomatic Implications
Recognition carries significant legal weight, allowing Palestine to pursue claims in international courts and join additional UN bodies and treaties. It would strengthen Palestinian standing at the International Criminal Court, where investigations into alleged war crimes are ongoing.
The UK’s shift also increases pressure on the United States, which would become the only UN Security Council permanent member not recognising Palestine if France follows through next week. This isolation could complicate Washington’s role as primary mediator in the conflict.
British officials stress that recognition alone cannot change facts on the ground. The government is taking additional steps including air drops of humanitarian supplies with Jordan and evacuating injured Palestinian children to British hospitals.
Historical Significance
The decision represents the most significant shift in British Middle East policy since the 2016 Brexit vote. For decades, UK governments of both parties maintained that recognition should come only through negotiations, a position that effectively gave Israel veto power over Palestinian aspirations.
By acting unilaterally, Britain joins a growing international consensus that waiting for Israeli agreement means accepting indefinite occupation and settlement expansion. With over 64,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza according to health officials, and widespread destruction the UN terms genocide, ministers believe diplomatic niceties can no longer justify inaction.
The recognition also reflects generational change in British politics. Starmer, who campaigned for Remain alongside then-Shadow Foreign Secretary Lammy, leads a Labour Party where support for Palestinian rights has become mainstream, particularly among younger MPs who view the issue through the lens of international law rather than historical obligations.
What Happens Next
Sunday’s announcement is expected to outline practical steps for implementing recognition, including opening diplomatic channels with Palestinian representatives and potentially upgrading the Palestinian delegation in London to embassy status.
The government will likely emphasise that recognition aims to preserve the two-state solution’s viability rather than prejudge final status negotiations. Officials may outline expectations for Palestinian governance reforms whilst maintaining pressure on Israel to halt settlement expansion and agree to meaningful peace talks.
International reaction will be closely watched, particularly from Washington. The Trump administration’s response could range from diplomatic protests to concrete pressure, potentially affecting the UK-US “special relationship” and ongoing trade negotiations.
For Palestinians, recognition offers crucial diplomatic validation after decades of occupation and recent devastation in Gaza. For Israelis opposed to Palestinian statehood, it represents another step in what they see as international abandonment of Israel’s security concerns.
Ultimately, Sunday’s announcement will mark Britain choosing sides in a fundamental question: whether Palestinian statehood should remain conditional on Israeli agreement, or whether recognising Palestinian rights might itself create conditions for peace. After months of humanitarian catastrophe and with the two-state solution hanging by a thread, Starmer’s government has decided waiting is no longer an option.
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Image Credit:
Keir Starmer PM (cropped official portrait, 5 July 2024) — photo by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
