With local elections looming, the Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch faces a storm of internal discord and external competition. Pollsters warn the Tories could lose up to 500 council seats, a devastating blow that could reshape the political landscape across the UK. Adding fuel to the fire, former Home Secretary Robert Jenrick has floated the idea of a “coalition” with Reform UK—an idea that party leader Badenoch has firmly rejected.
This growing rift not only tests Badenoch’s authority but exposes a deeper struggle over the party’s future. Is this a mere bump in the road or the beginning of a broader political collapse?
📌 Read the full background at Sky News.
Local Election Forecast: A Storm Brewing for the Tories
With just days to go before the May 2025 local elections, projections suggest that the Conservative Party could face a massive defeat—losing up to 500 councillors nationwide. This warning isn’t just political hyperbole. Internal party strategists and polling analysts from the BBC and YouGov have echoed the same concern: the Tories are hemorrhaging support, especially in rural and traditionally safe districts.
Key Risk Factors:
- Voter fatigue with the Conservative brand
- Economic stagnation and cost-of-living crisis
- A resurgent Labour Party gaining trust
- The rising influence of Reform UK, especially in areas like Lincolnshire
This forecast isn’t just about numbers—it signals a potential collapse of grassroots Conservative influence at a local level, threatening the party’s long-term political infrastructure.
📌 Get the latest local election updates at BBC Politics.
What’s Behind the Predicted Loss of 500 Councillors?
Multiple factors are driving the dramatic shift in support away from the Conservatives. Among the most cited reasons:
- Cost of Living Crisis: Inflation and stagnant wages have hit working-class families the hardest. Local Conservative councillors are seen as representatives of a party that has failed to mitigate the crisis.
- Public Services Decline: Cuts to NHS funding, education, and public transportation have sparked anger in communities. Many believe that Tory leadership has neglected local needs.
- Leadership Transition: With Rishi Sunak out and Kemi Badenoch in, some voters are still adjusting. Badenoch’s policy pivots haven’t yet resonated with the wider electorate.
- Rise of Reform UK: Led by Nigel Farage, Reform UK has successfully poached disillusioned Conservative voters by promoting a more aggressive stance on immigration and Brexit follow-through.
The real danger isn’t just losing council seats—it’s the narrative. If these elections signal a Tory implosion, it could have implications heading into the next general election.
📌 Read voter sentiment analyses at YouGov UK.
Kemi Badenoch’s Leadership Under Pressure
As the newest Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch is trying to consolidate power while navigating an already fractured party. While some admire her straightforward style and commitment to core Conservative principles, others see her as out of touch with the shifting electoral base.
Her decision to rule out any electoral pact with Reform UK has drawn both praise and criticism. To Badenoch, a coalition with Farage’s party would dilute the Tory brand and alienate moderate conservatives.
From the party leadership:
There are no plans whatsoever to form a pact with Reform UK. The Conservative Party remains committed to unifying centre-right values without compromising on our principles.
But this stance has stirred rebellion in the ranks, especially as election pressure mounts.
📌 Follow Badenoch’s policy speeches via Conservatives.com.
Robert Jenrick’s Call for a Conservative-Reform UK Alliance
Former minister Robert Jenrick has taken a radically different approach. In a leaked meeting, he openly called for ending “the war on the right” by building a de facto alliance with Reform UK.
“If we split the vote, we let Labour win. We need to find a way to come together—not with paperwork, but with purpose.”
Jenrick’s comments have sparked outrage from some senior Tories and energised the party’s right flank, which has long admired Farage’s clarity on immigration and sovereignty.
📌 Read the full story at The Guardian.
