Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed a pilot “one in, one out” returns scheme aimed at deterring Channel crossings, as the British prime minister declared the current situation “cannot go on as it is”.
The reciprocal arrangement, announced at the conclusion of the 37th UK-France Summit in London, will see Britain return illegal small boat arrivals to France in exchange for accepting a similar number of asylum seekers who have strong cases and family connections in the UK.
The scheme marks a significant diplomatic breakthrough after years of deadlock over returns, though it faces immediate opposition from Mediterranean EU nations and questions about its effectiveness given current crossing numbers exceed 21,000 this year alone.
Limited Initial Impact
French newspaper Le Monde reported the pilot scheme would initially involve approximately 50 migrants per week – roughly 2,600 annually – representing just 6% of current crossing numbers. Government sources indicated the programme could be scaled up if it demonstrates “proof of concept” during the pilot phase.
“We’re bringing new tactics into play and a new level of intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of criminal gangs,” Starmer said during summit proceedings at 10 Downing Street.
Macron, speaking alongside the British prime minister, said both countries “shared the same resolve to fight against illegal criminal gangs, with strong coordination with other EU states.
The announcement caps Macron’s three-day state visit to the UK – the first by a French president since 2008 and the first by any EU head of state since Brexit.
Mediterranean Opposition
The agreement has already sparked fierce resistance from southern European nations who fear it could redirect migration flows to their territories. Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus – collectively known as the Med5 group – have written to the European Commission expressing “serious concerns” about the bilateral arrangement.
“We take note – with a degree of surprise – of the reported intention of France to sign a bilateral readmission arrangement,” the Mediterranean nations stated in their letter. “If confirmed, such an initiative raises serious concerns for us, both procedurally and in terms of potential implications for other member states, particularly those of first entry.”
These countries worry France could exploit existing EU rules allowing asylum seekers to be returned to their first country of entry, effectively passing migrants received from Britain on to southern European shores.
A European Commission spokesperson confirmed: “We are in contact with the French and the UK authorities to ensure the necessary clarifications are made.”
Modelled on EU-Turkey Deal
The policy mirrors a 2016 arrangement between the European Union and Turkey, which saw irregular migrants crossing the Greek-Turkish border returned to Turkey in exchange for Syrian refugees who had waited inside Turkey to be resettled in Europe.
While that scheme initially reduced crossings significantly, critics argue it merely displaced migration routes and raised serious human rights concerns about conditions in Turkish refugee camps.
For Starmer, securing any returns agreement represents crucial political progress as he faces mounting pressure from the surging anti-immigrant Reform UK party. Support for Nigel Farage’s party has climbed steadily as Channel crossings reach record levels, with more than 21,000 arrivals in rudimentary vessels so far this year – a 50% increase on the same period in 2024.
Broader Security Cooperation
Beyond migration, the summit yielded agreements on defence cooperation, with both leaders dialling into a meeting of the “coalition of the willing” on Ukraine from the UK’s military headquarters at Northwood in north-west London.
The 30-nation coalition is developing plans to support a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, including the possible deployment of peacekeeping forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni participated in the call.
Economic sweeteners accompanied the diplomatic progress, with French energy giant Engie announcing a €1.2 billion investment in UK energy storage projects. This follows EDF’s commitment to take a 12.5% stake in the Sizewell C nuclear project, which Starmer said would lead to “lower bills, more jobs and better energy security for the UK”.
Enhanced Enforcement Measures
The returns scheme forms part of a broader package of enforcement measures, including new powers for French police to intervene in shallow waters up to 300 metres offshore. Previously, officers could only act while boats remained on beaches.
Video footage has shown French police using knives to puncture inflatable dinghies before they can launch – an unprecedented tactic that has drawn both praise and criticism from human rights groups.
The UK has pledged continued financial support for French enforcement efforts, having already committed more than £700 million since 2018 for enhanced patrols and surveillance equipment. The majority of this funding – nearly £500 million over three years – came from a 2023 deal negotiated under the previous Conservative government.
Political Risks
The agreement carries significant political risks for both leaders. Macron faces criticism from right-wing opponents in France who question why the country would accept migrants seeking to reach Britain, particularly given his approval ratings hover below 20%.
For Starmer, whose popularity has plummeted since taking office, the limited scope of the pilot scheme may disappoint voters expecting more dramatic action on Channel crossings. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage had demanded during Prime Minister’s Questions that Starmer tell Macron “we will not accept undocumented males across the English Channel.
Deterrent Effect Questioned
Migration experts have questioned whether returning just 50 people per week would create sufficient deterrent effect when smuggling gangs charge up to £5,000 per crossing and hundreds attempt the journey daily during calm weather.
Alain Boonefaes, deputy mayor of the French commune of Gravelines near Calais, told The Telegraph he was “very sceptical” of the plan, adding: “I don’t see how it would work in practice.”
The scheme’s effectiveness will likely depend on its visibility and the speed of returns. If migrants see contemporaries being swiftly returned to France, it could undermine smugglers’ guarantees of reaching Britain. However, if the process becomes mired in legal challenges or bureaucratic delays, its deterrent value may prove minimal.
Next Steps
Both governments stressed the pilot nature of the programme, suggesting adjustments could follow based on operational experience. Starmer’s spokesperson said the UK would continue investing in its Border Security Command and working with international allies, acknowledging that “cracking down on these gangs cannot be done singularly”.
The French presidency indicated further technical discussions would refine implementation details, including selection criteria for returnees and those accepted in exchange.
As Macron’s state visit concluded with the announcement, both leaders faced the reality that this pilot scheme, while diplomatically significant, represents only an incremental step in addressing a crisis that has defied simple solutions for years.
The true test will come not in the political theatre of summit declarations, but in the cold waters of the Channel where desperate people continue to risk everything for the promise of a new life – and where criminal gangs stand ready to profit from their desperation regardless of whatever “new deterrent” emerges from today’s agreement.
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Image Credit:
Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets French President Emmanuel Macron (54594293184) – Photo by UK Government, licensed under Open Government Licence v3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
