Experts warn motorists to ‘brace for impact’ as Middle East crisis sends oil markets into turmoil – Brent crude jumps to five-month high
British motorists are facing an immediate fuel price shock after oil prices surged by as much as 13 per cent following Israel’s devastating bombing raids on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The dramatic spike in global oil markets – the largest single-day jump in almost three years – is expected to trigger significant increases at UK petrol pumps within days, with experts warning drivers to “brace for impact.”
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark that directly influences UK fuel prices, jumped to $78.50 per barrel in early trading – its highest level since January – before settling at $73.73, still up 6.3 per cent.
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Fuel industry experts warned GB News that British drivers should prepare for an immediate hit to their wallets as the crisis unfolds.
There is usually a lag between events, oil prices and the price at the pump, so we may not see prices jump immediately,” Paul Holland, Managing Director at Corpay, told GB News.
The problem for motorists will come if prices rise at the same time as the fuel duty tax break is removed, which could cause a sudden and very significant rise in prices.
The warning comes as UK petrol prices currently stand at around 136.39 pence per litre, with diesel at 142.71 pence – already up from last year’s levels.
NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE TRIGGERS PANIC
Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” targeted Iran’s main nuclear enrichment site at Natanz, killed leading nuclear scientists, and struck at the heart of Tehran’s ballistic missile program, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The strikes sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with traders fearing:
- Potential Iranian retaliation targeting oil infrastructure
- Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of world oil flows
- Wider regional conflict drawing in Saudi Arabia and other oil producers
- Supply disruptions from Iran’s 3.3 million barrels per day production
WORST TIMING FOR UK DRIVERS
The price surge couldn’t come at a worse time for British motorists, who are already facing:
- The potential end of the 5p per litre fuel duty freeze in March 2025
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves considering fuel duty rises to plug the £22 billion budget black hole
- Already elevated prices compared to pandemic lows
Industry analyst Luke Bosdet from the AA warned that without government intervention, “petrol prices could jump back to pre-Covid record levels.
MARKET MAYHEM
In dramatic early morning trading:
- US crude oil surged 8.2% to $73.61 per barrel
- Asian stock markets tumbled, with Tokyo’s Nikkei falling 1.2%
- European markets braced for heavy losses
- The pound weakened against the dollar, compounding UK fuel costs
Oil markets have been alarmed by reports of the latest hostilities,” Barclays analysts said in an emergency note to clients, warning “the worst case outcome is far from being in the price.
GOVERNMENT SCRAMBLES TO RESPOND
Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the strikes and called for urgent de-escalation, posting on X: “The reports of these strikes are concerning and we urge all parties to step back and reduce tensions urgently.
But his words did little to calm markets, with traders betting on further price rises as the crisis deepens.
EXPERT WARNINGS
Oil market veteran Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, warned CNBC that the situation could spiral rapidly: “Oil investors are now concerned that Iran will retaliate by attacking either Israeli or American targets, leading to a major military escalation and a potential oil supply disruption.
The fear is that Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz – a nightmare scenario that JPMorgan analysts say could send oil prices soaring to $120 per barrel or higher.
IRAN’S RETALIATION THREAT
Iranian officials have vowed a “crushing response” to the Israeli strikes, with Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warning that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would “target all U.S. bases in the host countries” if conflict erupts.
The stakes couldn’t be higher – Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports half of that, representing about 2% of global supply.
PUMP PRICE PREDICTIONS
Fuel experts are now frantically calculating the impact on UK forecourts:
- A 10% rise in oil prices typically translates to 5-7p per litre at the pump
- Current surge could add 8-10p per litre within days
- Petrol could breach 145p per litre by next week
- Diesel might hit 155p per litre if crisis escalates
WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU
For the average UK driver filling a 55-litre tank:
- Current fill-up cost: £75.01 (petrol) / £78.49 (diesel)
- Potential cost next week: £79.75 (petrol) / £85.25 (diesel)
- Annual extra cost for average driver: £240-£360
GLOBAL FALLOUT
The crisis has sent shockwaves beyond fuel markets:
- Stock markets across Asia and Europe tumbled
- Airlines warned of potential fuel surcharges
- Shipping companies braced for higher costs
- Inflation fears reignited across major economies
SILVER LINING?
Some analysts urged caution, noting that Israel deliberately avoided targeting Iranian oil facilities directly.
I don’t think we’re looking at anything as severe as when Russia invaded Ukraine,” said Ellen Wald of Washington Ivy Advisors. “It’s just not that significant a threat to oil supplies.”
But with tensions at their highest in decades and both sides threatening escalation, British drivers are being warned to fill up now before prices surge further.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
As the Middle East teeters on the brink of all-out war, UK motorists face an anxious wait to see:
- Whether Iran retaliates against oil infrastructure
- If other regional powers are drawn into the conflict
- How quickly pump prices will rise
- Whether the government will intervene to protect drivers
One thing is certain – the days of relatively stable fuel prices appear to be over as the world’s most volatile region explodes into conflict once again.
Motorists are advised to fill up as soon as possible and consider fuel-saving measures as the crisis unfolds.
“Petrol Station” by Ian Capper, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution–ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY‑SA 2.0) – https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by‑sa/2.0
