Britain will be able to return approximately 6% of small boat migrants to France under a “one-in, one-out” deal being negotiated between Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, according to French newspaper reports. The scheme would see 50 migrants returned weekly, meaning only one in 17 Channel crossers would be sent back to Calais.
The Prime Minister held talks with the French President at Downing Street on Wednesday as part of Macron’s three-day state visit—the first by a French president since 2008. The leaders agreed on the need for a “new deterrent” to stop refugee and migrant crossings across the English Channel.
The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions,” a British readout of the meeting stated. “The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”
Record Numbers Challenge Labour’s Promises
More than 44,000 migrants have arrived in the UK since Labour won the July 2024 General Election, with crossings reaching record levels. Data from the Migration Observatory shows approximately 42,000 arrivals in the year ending 30 June 2025—a 34 per cent increase from the previous year.
The surge represents a significant challenge for Starmer’s government, which promised to “smash the gangs” operating the dangerous crossings. In the first six months of 2025 alone, nearly 20,000 people arrived via small boats, marking a 48 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.
We’re working closely with the French on this issue, we’ll only provide funding that delivers for our priorities,” Starmer told Parliament during Prime Minister’s Questions. He added that Britain had persuaded the French “to review their laws and tactics on the north coast to take more effective action.”
Opposition from Mediterranean Nations
Five EU countries have raised serious concerns about the proposed bilateral agreement. Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta, and Cyprus sent a letter expressing their “surprise” at France’s reported intention to sign such a deal.
“We take note – with a degree of surprise – of the reported intention of France to sign a bilateral readmission arrangement,” the letter stated. “If confirmed, such an initiative raises serious concerns for us, both procedurally and in terms of potential implications for other member states, particularly those of first entry.”
The Mediterranean nations fear France could use existing EU rules to transfer migrants onwards to their countries, which are often the first point of entry for irregular arrivals. A government source acknowledged the UK aims to increase return figures after the scheme launches, though significant obstacles remain.
Details of the Proposed Arrangement
Under the proposed system, Britain and France would process migrants using biometric details to separate those with valid claims for family reunification in Britain from those without. Those lacking legitimate connections would be returned to France, whilst the UK would accept asylum seekers from France with established family links.
It’ll start as a pilot but it’s to prove the point that if you pay for your passage on a boat, then you could quite quickly find yourself back in France,” a government source told The Times. However, France has previously refused such arrangements, insisting the UK should negotiate with all European Union countries.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey challenged the Prime Minister to stop providing funding to France unless they agreed to “a returns deal and doing their bit to stop the boats.” The UK has pledged more than £700 million to France since 2018 for coastal patrols and surveillance equipment.
Changing French Tactics
French officials have reportedly agreed to begin intercepting small boats even after they reach the water—a significant shift from current policy. Present guidelines prevent French police from intervening once boats are offshore, contributing to the crisis.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper confirmed that France has agreed to change its rules, though details remain unclear. The latest figures show 2025 has already set records for small boat arrivals in the first six months, with data collected since 2018 showing unprecedented numbers.
Historical Context of Failed Agreements
Britain and France have a long history of agreements aimed at stopping irregular migration, with limited success. In 2002, Home Secretary David Blunkett and French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy announced a deal to close the Sangatte migrant camp at Calais.
We will also put an end to a symbol – a symbol which was like a magnet for immigrants who thought that by coming there they would find a way into the UK,” Sarkozy declared at the time. Despite multiple subsequent agreements in 2014, 2015, and beyond, crossings have continued to rise.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp criticised Labour’s proposed policy as a “gimmick,” stating: “We pay the French half a billion pounds to wave the boats off from Calais, and in return we get a migrant merry-go-round where the same number still come here.
Macron’s State Visit and Broader Relations
During his address to both Houses of Parliament on Tuesday, Macron promised to deliver on measures to cut migrant numbers, describing the issue as a “burden” to both countries. He emphasised the need for a “shared responsibility to address irregular migration with humanity, solidarity and fairness.”
The French President also stressed that Britain and France would “only arrive at the lasting and effective solution” if they addressed the “pull factors” encouraging people to make the journey. Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds responded that the UK was already working to reduce such factors through crackdowns on illegal working, with over 7,000 arrests in that area.
In this unstable world, hope for a better life elsewhere is legitimate,” Macron told Parliament. But we cannot allow our countries‘ rules for taking in people to be flouted and criminal networks to cynically exploit the hopes of so many individuals with so little respect for human life.
Rising Death Toll and Humanitarian Concerns
The human cost of Channel crossings reached tragic new heights in 2024, with 73 people dying attempting the journey—more than in all previous years combined. The perilous nature of the crossings continues despite increased enforcement efforts.
According to data from Kids and Car Safety, the majority of those making the crossings are from Afghanistan, Syria, Eritrea, Iran, and Sudan. Nearly everyone who reaches the UK by this route claims asylum, with 95 per cent of the 36,816 small boat arrivals in 2024 seeking protection.
As negotiations continue, both governments face pressure to find solutions that balance security concerns with humanitarian obligations. The effectiveness of any “one-in, one-out” scheme will depend on implementation at sufficient scale to create genuine deterrence—a challenge given current crossing numbers.
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Image Credit:
Keir Starmer at NATO Summit – Photo by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, licensed under Open Government Licence v3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
